WEF notes growing global risks associated with disinformation

The World Economic Forum (WEF) has published its latest Global Risks Report (GRPS), assessing key global risks for the short, medium, and long terms, Report informs.

The study found that geoeconomic confrontation was recognized as the most serious risk in the short term (2026), while economic threats demonstrated the sharpest increase among all risk categories.

Based on the survey, the World Economic Forum compiled a list of 34 global risks for the period 2026-2036.

In 2026, geopolitical and geoeconomic threats confidently dominate risk assessments. Almost a third of GRPS survey respondents named either geoeconomic confrontation (18%, 1st place) or armed conflicts between states (14%, 2nd place) as the top risk. Compared to last year, geoeconomic confrontation rose two places, while interstate conflicts fell from first to second place. Extreme weather events ranked third with 8%, down six percentage points from last year.

Other significant risks for 2026 included social polarization (7%, 4th place) and disinformation and the spread of misinformation (7%, 5th place), while economic downturn remained in the top ten at sixth place (5%). Concern about technological threats increased: the negative consequences of artificial intelligence (8th place, 4%) and cybersecurity (9th place, 3%) entered the top ten for the first time. Inequality, however, remained in 10th place (3%), and the risk of erosion of human rights and civil liberties rose two places to seventh place (4%). Environmental threats were overestimated in the short term: the risk of critical changes to Earth systems dropped from seventh to 13th place.

In the medium term (2028), geoeconomic confrontation will not only maintain its status as the top global risk but will also demonstrate the sharpest increase in significance, rising eight places. Disinformation and the spread of falsehoods will move up to second place for the first time since 2023, followed by social polarization (third place) and extreme weather events (fourth place). Armed conflicts between states will fall to fifth place by 2028, reflecting a shift in the focus of global instability from the military to the economic and technological realm.

WEF experts attribute this shift to the expansion of geoeconomic pressure tools: sanctions, regulatory measures, capital restrictions, and the "weaponization" of supply chains are increasingly being used.

Rising geoeconomic tensions are accompanied by persistently high levels of inequality (7th place) and the erosion of human rights and civil liberties (8th place), as well as the increasing importance of cybersecurity (6th place).

Environmental risks remain among the top ten in the medium term, but environmental pollution, despite ranking 9th, shows a decline.

In the long term (2036), the structure of global threats will change fundamentally. According to survey respondents, extreme weather events will rise to first place, and half of the top ten risks are environmental in nature. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse will remain in second place, followed by critical changes in Earth systems (3rd place). Respondents emphasize that the risk of biodiversity loss demonstrates the sharpest deterioration in severity when moving from a two-year to a ten-year horizon.

At the same time, the significance of technological threats is growing significantly. Disinformation and the negative consequences of AI hold fourth and fifth place, respectively, demonstrating one of the fastest increases in severity amid the accelerated development of artificial intelligence and quantum technologies. According to respondents, these processes have the potential to intensify geoeconomic rivalry and create cascading risks for security and the economy.

Against this backdrop, geoeconomic rivalry over a ten-year horizon is losing its intensity and falling to 19th place, a drop of 18 spots compared to the 2026 outlook. Economic risks are not among the top 10 long-term risks, but their combined severity is growing: the concentration of strategic resources and technologies rises to 11th place, while debt, economic downturn, and the bursting of asset bubbles also show deterioration.

Thus, the WEF update identifies a clear dynamic of global threats: the dominance of geoeconomics and geopolitics in 2026, increasing complexity and layering of risks in 2028, and a shift in focus to environmental and technological threats by 2036, against the backdrop of accelerating structural changes in the global system.

According to the update, the key risks for Azerbaijan in 2026 are: cybersecurity; environmental pollution; disinformation and misinformation; inflation; and non-weather-related natural disasters.

For Armenia, the key risks for this year are: insufficient public services and social protection (including education, infrastructure, pensions); state-led armed conflicts (proxy wars, civil war, coups, terrorism, etc.); disinformation and misinformation; lack of economic opportunity or unemployment; and economic downturn (recession, stagnation).

For Armenia, these risks (likely based on the upcoming parliamentary elections in June – ed.) were identified based on a survey by the CIVITTA Center for Institutional Research.

For Georgia, the five main risks include: cybersecurity; lack of economic opportunity or unemployment; loss of biodiversity and ecosystem destruction; negative impacts of artificial intelligence technologies; and cyberwarfare.

The survey is based on a survey of over 11,000 respondents worldwide. It was conducted from March to June 2025.