ING revises inflation forecast in Azerbaijan for 2025

The largest banking group in the Netherlands, ING Group, forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan in 2025 at 5.3%, Report informs referring to ING.

Expectations have increased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous forecast.

The bank's analysts expect inflation to be 4.6% in Q3 (an increase of 0.1 percentage points), and 4.8% in Q4 (+0.1 percentage points). In the first quarter of 2026, ING expects average annual inflation at 4.6%, in the second - 4.9%, in the third - 5.2%, in the fourth - 5.7%.

Overall, ING forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan in 2026 at 5.1% (unchanged from the previous forecast). According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economy, the average annual inflation in the country will be 5.1% this year and 4.3% next year.

According to the latest forecasts of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (in January 2025), inflation will be 5.5% this year and 3.8% in 2026.

The UN, in turn, predicts inflation in Azerbaijan at 3.6% this year and 3.1% next year. The World Bank expects average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 2.3% in 2025-2026.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 5.7% in 2025 and annual inflation at 5.2%. In 2026, the average annual inflation, according to the fund, will be 4.5%, and in 2027-2029 - 4%.

S&P Global and Moody's forecast average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 4% this year and 3% next year, while Fitch Ratings forecasts 5.3% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026.

Average annual inflation in Azerbaijan was 2.2% last year and 5.9% in January-June 2025.