ING: Azerbaijan’s state finances remain solid

Azerbaijan’s state finances remain solid, as the resulting budget breakeven Brent price totalled $64 per barrel, which is within the historical range of the past 10 years, according to ING, Report informs.

The bank said the breakeven Brent price for Azerbaijan is projected at $66 this year and $68 in 2026.

Azerbaijan's consolidated budget balance, which was 4% of GDP in 2024, is projected to be 1.7% in 2025 and 0.4% in 2026.

Annual fuel proceeds per $1 for a barrel of Brent prices are off their 2023 peaks, but at $183 million are also within range, the ING analysts say.

"This suggests that the government of Azerbaijan still has the fiscal space to continue its generous approach despite a likely reduction in fuel revenue amid declining oil production. The growing appetite for state spending for social support, the military and investments is likely to be satisfied in the coming couple of years, likely leading to a decline in the consolidated budget surplus towards zero by 2026. This should be supportive of overall economic growth, especially in the non-fuel sectors, but will eventually put the issue of fiscal consolidation on the policy agenda," ING said.