Referendum in northern Iraq: general rehearsal for fragmentation of regional states - COMMENT

Baku. 21 September. REPORT.AZ/ The situation in Near East in the next 10 years might not improve. The situation can even be worsened than today. The reason for that is the claim of Barzani family who leads the north of Iraq. Similar to ISIS being persistent in realizing its aim, the autonomous government also looks very firm to organize “independence referendum” in this territory of Iraq.

The head of the local government Masoud Barzani set this event for September 25. The complexity of situations can also be told from pre-referendum developments. Last day Masoud Barzani met with Secretary of State for Defence of UK Michael Fallon in the Salahaddin settlement of Erbil. In the meeting ‘referendum’ was the topic of discussion. M. Fallon asked Barzani to put off the event and begin the negotiations with Baghdad. The head of local government in response told him: “Dialogue is a tool for independence. I don’t believe Bagdad will give guarantee for that. That is why without international guarantees the referendum will not be postponed for the sake of holding talks with Bagdad. We have come a long way together from unitary to federalism. We became disappointed by all of that. We, as two neighbors, are for building better ties.”

English visitor said they want the ‘referendum’ to be postponed and to start holding open talks with Iraq with participation of international mediators. Michael Fallon said UK will continue to support the local government in the northern Iraq with military aid.

Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt are against the referendum and told them that it will do more harm than good. USA, UK and France publicly say they are also against the referendum.

Turkey demonstrating strict position said all the necessary measures will be taken. Iran has named this step of Barzani government as “dangerous and provocative”. Both Turkey, and Iran deployed military forces on the territories bordering with northern Iraq. Iran also trains “Hashdi Shabi” forces for possible operation. Secretary of Iranian Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani said if KRG (Kurdistan Regional Government) secedes from Iraq following the referendum, Iran will close its border with northern Iraq: “We have signed border agreement with Iraqi government. The border service between two countries operate in line with that agreement. In case of the secession, all border passes between Iran and the KRG will be closed.”

Iraq took all necessary legal measures against the decision of KRG. Turkey and Saudi Arabia also expressed their readiness to mediate between Bagdad and Erbil.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the ‘referendum’ would detract from the need to defeat ISIL and undermine reconstruction efforts in Iraq.

In response to all the reactions, Barzani government prepares for military resistance. They are also going to hold the mentioned “event” in Kirkuk, land of Turkmen’s ancestors.

During the tenure of former prime-minister of Iraq Nouri al-Maliki, Babaker Zebari who was the chief of staff of the Iraqi Army was appointed as a commander of militants in Turkmen region. By the decision of Iraqi parliament governor of Kirkuk governorate Najmaldin Karim was dismissed from his position. He had a role to raise the symbol of local government over the administrative building in Kirkuk, northern Iraq and threatened to remove Arabs, local Turkmens from Kirkuk after referendum. N.Karim is one of the organizers of the ‘referendum’ in Kirkuk. Moreover, N.Karim is accused of deploying 200 militants of PKK terror group at military base in Kirkuk. Certainly, the main master of the situation regarding Kirkuk issue are Turkmens.

Ali Mehdi Sadik, a member of the Kirkuk Provincial Assembly commented on this issue: "We, Iraqi Turkmens will not take part in the division of the homeland. Mistakes made by the central government, the US and the Kurds since 2003 have caused such a situation in the country. Iraq, especially Kirkuk and Turkmen regions, is experiencing a big problem. It's almost a war expected".

Ali Mehdi Sadik commented on the issue of supporting statements by Turkmen MP Muna Kahveci and Chairman of Turkmen Development Party Mahammad Sadettin Elkhanli regarding the referendum: "They are representatives of the organizations established by the Kurdish parties, they cannot represent the Turkmens. Turkmens' confidence in them is zero."

In his interview with local correspondents, Ali Mehdi Sadik said that there are various armed groups in Iraq and noted that Turkmens have never had such a force and spoke about establishment of such a union now: "We were late for creating self-defense forces. We had to build it after 2003. Fortunately, we built it albeit belatedly. This force will protect safety of all Turkmens in unity and solidarity. Turkmens should have the forces as each region. Fortunately, we will achieve this".

Notably, the local Kurdish government in northern Iraq plans to hold a referendum "on independence" on September 25. The United States, UK, Iran and Turkey are against this referendum, while Israel supports the Kurds action.

The Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdağ in his statement to Report said: “In general, all the developments taking place in Iraq undermine the international security of Turkey. For this reason, we approach very sensitively to referendum issue. On September 22 the meeting of the National Security Council of Turkey and Cabinet of Ministers will be held in Ankara and decisions will made.Turkey will prepare alternatives to any kind of step otherwise we cannot maintain stability of country. Our position is firm, we are waiting for the annulment of the referendum decision. Turkey will take sharp steps depending on the outcome."

It is expected that Turkey will impose sanctions against local government in the northern of Iraq. According to Turkish media, these sanctions can be as following: The general Consulate of Turkey in Erbil will be closed, Derecik, Gülyazı, Üzümlü border gates will be closed for northern Iraqis, operation of pipeline which transports crude oil from Ceyhan port to Europe will be limited, construction of natural gas pipeline from Erbil to Sirnak will be canceled, military trainings and aid for Kurdish fighters combatting ISIS will be ceased.

More than half of the products sold in the northern of Iraq are produced in Turkey. Apart from this, Turkey is one of the five foreign investors in this region. That is why Turkey might review investing in the northern Iraq and reconsider trade relations with this region. In case of interfering in lives of Turkmens living in the region, Turkey might also carry out military operation. There are those who help the political forces in the region. Israel openly supports the known step of KRG. They do not hide that will support the regional government. Under current conditions, state oil company of Russia “Rosneft” announced that along with the government in the northern of Iraq they will build natural gas pipeline which will be put in operation by 2019.The value of this contract is $ 1 bln.

The attitude of political forces in the northern of Iraq towards referendum is not unequivocal. Firstly, parliamentary elections in the region were held in 2009 last time. The legitimacy of current parliament remains in question. That is why the political forces in the region sharply criticize the government of Barzani. “Gorran” movement has been boycotting the local parliament for two years and does not participate in its activity. They want the Barzani family to leave the power. This movement is against the referendum. Along with “Gorran” local Islamic Party also against ‘referendum’. Patriotic Union of Kurdistan also does not seriously support referendum idea of ruling Democratic Party. The former president of Iraq Jalal Talabani became the leader of this party.

The scene in the region before the referendum can be seen as following. The local government does not look like to give up its position. The fight against ISIS terrorists is almost being forgotten. The region is on the brink of new conflict. It’s is expected that next week developments will shed more light to issue. The ‘referendum’ campaign in the northern of Iraq can also be called as ‘general rehearsal’ for possible fragmentation of states of the region. If it happens and international community close blind eyes on changing the political map of Iraq question arises: “What is the next country to be fragmented?”