Politico: In case of escalation in Taiwan, US may ‘forget’ about Ukraine

In the event of an escalation in Taiwan, the US may switch from the conflict in Ukraine to events around the island, Report informs referring to the Politico newspaper.

The deteriorating war of words between the US and China over Taiwan “could easily escalate” and is being closely watched in European capitals, according to senior diplomats.

Tensions are growing between the world’s two biggest superpowers as Beijing ratchets up its threats over a possible visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in the coming days.

Urmas Paet, a vice-chair of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, warned that the intensifying Ukraine war had increased the risk of Chinese aggression toward Taiwan “exponentially.”

Analysts are now urging EU leaders to pay attention and prepare for trouble ahead.

“Worst-case scenarios sometimes do come to pass,” said Boris Ruge, vice-chairman of the Munich Security Conference, citing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an example. “Europeans would do well to prepare for contingencies, backing up Taiwan while remaining in close contact with Beijing, and helping to deescalate.”

Pelosi announced on July 31 that she is taking a Congressional delegation on a tour of Asia. A rumored stop-off in Taiwan - which has provoked a fierce backlash from Beijing - was not mentioned in her official itinerary but could still happen.

China insists that a visit to Taiwan by Pelosi would be a blatant breach of the “one China” policy governing the territory’s status, and a signal of American support for Taiwanese independence.

Analysts believe Xi will want to show a strong repose to any sign the US is moving to support Taiwanese independence, in part because he is seeking a norm-breaking third term in office this fall.