Advisor to head of Ukraine’s presidential office: War will be more destructive, but short-lived

Eastern Europe bureau of Report presents an interview with adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak.

- Russia continues rocket attacks on Ukrainian cities, and not only in the East of the country. So, a couple of days ago, at least 7 people were killed, more than 10 were injured as a result of the shelling of Lviv. What is the probability that the war can cover the entire territory of the country?

- In fact, the war has already covered the entire territory of Ukraine, almost all of our regions have already come under fire. The Russian Federation cannot fight on the battlefield, it has already proved the extremely low effectiveness of the ground part of its grouping and therefore transferred the main activity to air and missile strikes on large cities. Small towns or villages, as was the case in the Kyiv region, are almost 50-60% destroyed. Mariupol is 90% destroyed. This is a Russian tactic. It believes that through direct night strikes throughout the 50+ days of the war, it will be able to intimidate people and force citizens to either migrate, i.e. run away from the country, or put pressure on the government, forcing them to sign an unfavorable peace agreement with the Russian Federation.

I would call Russia's tactics in Ukraine the Syrian type of warfare, when you surround a large city, like Kharkiv, for example, and block the delivery of food, medicine, water, the evacuation of the wounded from there, and the evacuation of children. At the same time - the total bombardment of residential areas, so that people experience horror. Of course, we don’t only expect, but almost every day we are faced with the fact that cruise missiles fly and explode at night in a particular region.

- The world community has shown unprecedented solidarity by imposing sanctions on the Russian Federation, but Russia has not stopped its invasion of the territory of Ukraine and the war continues. What other steps does Ukraine expect from the world community regarding the Russian Federation?

- We need to understand that the world community is shocked by what Russia has unleashed in the heart of Europe by attacking a large country. For a long time, the world community reacted passively, especially during the first week of the war. Then, of course, the reaction began to manifest itself more aggressively, and today it is clear that the world will increasingly attack the Russian Federation with sanctions. In turn, Russia, by realizing that it has nothing to lose, because there are recorded facts of war crimes, which are unambiguous from the point of view of the legal assessment of these events, will continue to escalate the war. That is, it will take on a form that violates all the rules and customs of warfare.

It seems to me that the world community needs to understand that it is impossible to restore any relations with the Russian Federation, to understand that this country will be a pariah, that all business relations with it must be terminated. And, above all, what is still missing is that all trade with the Russian Federation in the energy sector should be suspended. That is, it is a direct and indirect embargo. A direct embargo is a rejection of short futures, short oil and long gas purchases. At the same time, an indirect embargo implies that any ship of any jurisdiction, for example, Panamanian or Seychellois, which enters a Russian port and takes oil or other cargo there, must be clearly legally disenfranchised to enter other ports, ports of other countries. If the world community takes a more consolidated position in the energy sector, a tougher position in the financial sector in relation to some Russian banks that have the opportunity to work with foreign banks, in particular, Sberbank, Gazprombank, then the war will probably cost Russia much more than now. As soon as we deprive Russia of the opportunity to fuel the war, to invest in technology, in the purchase of weapons that are used against Ukraine, the war will probably end faster.

- President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated that only Russian President Vladimir Putin can stop the war. The sanctions you mentioned take time, blood is shed. Specifically, what fact should the president of Russia be confronted with in order to end the war?

- A very interesting question. It's hard to say what Putin thinks. Because, it seems to me, Mr.Putin had the wrong analytics before entering Ukraine. And in principle, it seems to me that he does not clearly understand today's realities in order to objectively assess how events will evolve further. However, it is his choice, I mean it is his country. The only thing that can affect his decision is the growing internal instability. When people lose their jobs, when there is a sharp galloping rise in prices. But, again, it's all delayed. It's not a matter of one or two days.

Or a second, much faster solution - if Ukraine starts receiving heavy weapons, primarily heavy artillery with a range of 100+ km. We will be able to unblock our cities, and the Russian army will continue to suffer significant losses on the battlefields, it will be thrown back from part of our cities. This may also influence Putin's decision to find some way out of the war, where he suffers precisely a military defeat.

- What is the fate of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia? Earlier, Putin said that they had reached a dead end, and recently there has been no information in the press about such meetings. Is there an agreement on the next round of negotiations? Do you have any more meetings in Istanbul? Is Ukraine ready to continue these negotiations?

- The negotiation process is difficult. Especially after what we discovered after they left the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions. Of course, these are all war crimes that greatly changed the emotional background of perception of both the Russian army and the Russian intervention in Ukraine, and, in fact, the negotiation process as such. The negotiation process is very slow. Today, work is mainly carried out within the working subgroups, legal ones. Because the Istanbul communique, which proposed a formulaic solution to withdraw from the war with subsequent security guarantees for Ukraine, certainly served as a fundamental document on the basis of which one can work. And now the working subgroups are finalizing the document from the point of view of its compliance with international law.

At the same time, negotiations are underway with potential guarantor countries that could act as guarantors of Ukraine's security and take on this burden. These two processes are ongoing.

It's hard to say when the next face-to-face round will be. Because now Russia has begun, as it itself declares, the second phase of the war, well, they call it a special operation, in Donbas. There will naturally be clashes with a sufficiently large number of people and equipment. After that, probably, depending on the results of these clashes, the date of the next round of talks will be determined.

Of course, Turkiye is a very interesting mediator. It puts in a lot of effort to come up with a solution. I understand Turkiye because security and tranquility in the Black Sea region are important to the country. It’s trade first and foremost. What kind of trade can be during the war? All countries in this region suffer significant losses. The Russian Federation, when it starts its adventures, never thinks that neighboring countries will suffer direct or indirect losses. The Russian Federation never cares about anything. They are accustomed to living in a camp in which people, in principle, do not need anything. Look at the inner cities of the Russian Federation. They are all practically without service, without comfort. It is practically impossible for people to live there. Therefore, they do not care that, for example, in the Black Sea region, people will begin to suffer significant losses.

- Are there any other meetings planned in the near future?

- Not in the next few days. The online negotiation process does not stop. If there are any needs, then, of course, the negotiating delegation can go to the meeting. But I don't see the point yet.

- Putin thanked Belarus in his last statement...

- This is the internal agenda of the Russian Federation, the so-called union state. They have some kind of a union state. They praise each other all the time. This is for internal user information only.

- Will the parties have enough resources to continue the war, and Ukraine - to resist Russian aggression?

- The war will not be long. Ukraine has sufficient resources, which are only growing. Russia's resources, on the contrary, will "drain" under severe sanctions pressure. Of course, we would not want to prolong the conflict. Why can the conflict drag on? In 2014, it was decided to sign the so-called interim agreement - the Minsk agreements, which led to the war. Because it was an ill-conceived agreement signed by the former Ukrainian leadership.

As a result, it provoked Russia to accumulate certain forces and means in order to try to seize another part of the territories. This is a Russian tactic. Therefore, any temporary truce will lead to subsequent escalation and military action. This is definitely not beneficial for us, because a country that is in a constant state of war, of course, receives much less investment, invests much less in its development. And all the time it is necessary to think that tomorrow the shelling of the territory by a neighbor called the Russian Federation will begin again. We are very sorry that we have such a neighbor. In my opinion, not only we, many countries regret when they have insatiable neighbors who have no inner core, except for one thing - to seize something from someone. The war will not last long, it will be rather fleeting and tougher, because Russia does not know how to fight, but fights in numbers. The Russian Federation will send the maximum number of troops regardless of its losses. Today we already have more than 20,000 dead Russian soldiers. And, accordingly, in the end we will come to some solution that will allow us to fix not a temporary truce, but a peace that will suit Ukraine.

- Oleksiy Arestovych believes that the war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation can be long and continue intermittently until 2035? What is your forecast?

- I would not really like to give forecasts, because people get hope, which, for objective reasons, may not be realized. But it seems to me that the war will not be very long. It is difficult to say, May-June, I think that the war will continue for some time. But without victory, we will definitely not be able to end this war.

- Azerbaijan has supported Ukraine since the first days of the war, providing humanitarian assistance to refugees. How do you rate this cooperation?

- By and large, friends turned out to be friends. Azerbaijan is among friends, of course. The world is very simple, it is really black and white when there is a crisis. People with a good heart cannot become bad, and people with an evil heart can only take advantage of the situation. This can be seen in some European countries and politicians. They make crazy claims that there is nothing wrong with killing children.

As for humanitarian aid, the world as a whole has certainly reacted very warmly to Ukraine, our refugees are actively helped, large humanitarian corridors have been created through which food and clothing are supplied. And this significantly helps Ukraine, because the country's economy is not working properly now, because such a part of the country is now under hostilities. Humanitarian aid is extremely important for Ukraine. And we are very grateful to the many countries that responded. Not only countries, but also individuals and private foundations are helping us very actively.

- Kyiv was attacked. What is the situation in Kyiv now, can people return?

- First, Kyiv will never be occupied under any circumstances. Secondly, there is no unequivocal answer to the question of whether it is possible to return or not, everyone must make their own choice. Because from the point of view of security, cruise missiles still fly to Kyiv. From the point of view of logistics and convenience, there are still checkpoints, there is a curfew, the transport infrastructure does not work in full, there are many logistical difficulties.

But from an economic point of view, it is important that people return to Kyiv, shops, services, etc. open. If it is possible for us to leave the children and return to Kyiv to start the economy of the capital, this would be optimal for people and important for us.

The risks remain, Russia will continue to fire missiles at our cities. For the period of martial law, checkpoints and curfews will remain in place, and ordinary civilian infrastructure will not work in full. Nevertheless, we believe that it is beneficial for the country’s economy that people return to their jobs and start generating added value, otherwise the country will simply be left without money.