Baku 28° C
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The World Bank has maintained its growth forecast for the Azerbaijani economy in 2025 at 2.6% and 2.4% in 2026.
Report informs, citing the WB, that the bank has included a GDP growth forecast for 2027 in the new forecast data. According to the bank's estimates, the country's economy will grow by 2.3% in 2027.
Thus, the World Bank estimates the average annual growth of the Azerbaijani economy in 2025-2027 at 2.43%.
The economic growth rate in the South Caucasus is projected to slow to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026-2027.
According to the WB, growth in Azerbaijan is expected to be affected by declining oil production alongside weakening global demand and lower oil prices, while growth in Armenia and Georgia is projected to ease, reflecting softer domestic demand and a slowdown in re-exports, and converge toward potential rates.
"Lower global commodity demand and prices are expected to have mixed effects across the region—negatively affecting energy exporters, such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia, and metal exporters particularly exposed to China’s slowdown, such as Tajikistan, while benefiting energy importers like Türkiye," the WB says.
The World Bank expects economic activity to weaken in the countries of Europe and Central Asia: after 3.6% growth in 2024, a slowdown to 2.4% in 2025 is forecast, followed by an acceleration to 2.5% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027.
According to the forecast of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Economy, GDP growth is expected to be 3.7% in 2025, 3.2% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027.
Forecasts of international rating agencies differ: S&P Global expects annual growth of 2% in 2025-2026, Fitch Ratings expects 3% in 2025, 2.4% in 2026, and Moody's expects growth of 2.5%.
The International Monetary Fund predicts growth of 3.5% and 2.5% for 2025-2026, respectively, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicts 3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, the Asian Development Bank predicts 3.4% and 3.3% over the next two years, while ING Group (Netherlands) predicts 2.5%.
