ING revises inflation forecast for Azerbaijan

The Netherlands' largest banking group, ING Group, has adjusted its inflation forecast for Azerbaijan, now predicting an average annual inflation rate of 5.2% in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026.

According to Report, citing ING, these figures represent an increase of 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, compared to the bank's previous estimates.

The forecast suggests that inflation will reach 5.7% in Q1 2025, 6.1% in Q2, and 4.5% in both Q3 and Q4. By the last quarter of 2026, inflation is expected to return to 5.7%.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Economy projects annual inflation at 4.6% for 2025 and 4% for 2026. The country’s Central Bank, in its January 2025 forecast, expects inflation to be 5.5% this year and 3.8% in 2026.

The United Nations, however, has a more optimistic outlook, forecasting 3.6% inflation in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. Additionally, global rating agencies S&P Global and Moody’s project Azerbaijan’s inflation at 4% this year and 3% next year.

For reference, Azerbaijan’s average annual inflation stood at 2.2% last year, while in January 2025, it had already reached 5.4%.