International Energy Agency raises estimate of global oil demand growth

Global oil demand in 2023 will increase by 2.254 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to last year, according to the monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Report informs referring to Interfax.

A month earlier, the agency predicted this figure at 2.243 million bpd.

The organization’s analysts increased the demand estimate in 2022 by 27,000 bpd, to 99.6 million bpd, in 2023 by 37,000 bpd to 101.85 million bpd.

Agency experts lowered the demand forecast for the first quarter of 2023 by 10,000 bpd, to 100.38 million bpd, but increased it for all subsequent ones: in the second quarter - by 50,000 bpd, to 101.76 million bpd, on the third - by 20,000 bpd, to 102.66 million bpd, on the fourth quarter by 90,000 bpd, to 102.58 million bpd.

The main drivers of oil demand growth remain non-OECD countries, especially China, which will account for 97% and 77% of the growth, respectively. The main contribution to the increase in the indicator continues to be made by the growth in consumption of jet fuel and petrochemical raw materials.

At the same time, the forecast for growth in oil demand next year was reduced from 994,000 bpd in the previous report to 880,000 bpd. The agency expects oil demand to be 102.73 million bpd in 2024, compared to 102.81 million bpd a month earlier.

Severe economic conditions and continued progress in energy efficiency will put pressure on oil consumption, the IEA emphasizes.

Global commercial oil reserves fell by 63.9 million barrels in August - to the minimum of the last 10 months. The decrease was due to a fall in tanker inventories by 40.6 million barrels. Inventories in non-OECD countries decreased by 19.7 million barrels, in OECD countries by 3.5 million barrels.

According to Kpler, global seaborne crude oil exports fell by 1.6 million bpd from the previous month as Saudi Arabia fully implemented an additional 1 million bpd supply cut. As a result, global crude oil inventories fell by 102.3 million barrels to the lowest level since at least 2017, the agency emphasizes.

Industrial reserves in OECD countries fell by 6.5 million barrels in August to 2.816 billion barrels. This is 105.3 million barrels below the average over the past five years. At the same time, preliminary data for September indicate an increase in reserves by 11.8 million barrels.