Goldman Sachs lowers oil price forecasts for 2025-2026

Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have downgraded their oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing weakening global demand due to escalating trade wars and increased supply from OPEC+ countries, Report informs via Interfax.

Two factors that previously helped prevent market downturns—a low probability of recession and OPEC’s willingness to limit production when Brent was around $70 per barrel—are no longer in effect, Goldman said.

It has revised its average Brent crude price forecast for 2025 down by 5.5% to $69 per barrel, while the forecast for WTI has been cut by 4.3% to $66 per barrel.

For 2026, Goldman Sachs lowered its average Brent price projection by 9% to $62 per barrel, and WTI by 6.3% to $59 per barrel.

Furthermore, analysts warn that oil price forecasts could be revised downward even further, particularly for 2026, primarily due to the rising risk of a global recession.

Goldman now expects global oil demand to grow by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, down from its previous estimate of 900,000 bpd. The demand growth forecast for 2026 stands at 700,000 bpd.

The recent decision by US President Donald Trump to impose significant import tariffs has heightened concerns over the global economic outlook and oil demand.

Additionally, on April 3, eight OPEC+ member states agreed to accelerate the rollback of previously implemented production cuts, totaling 2.2 million bpd, and will increase output by 411,000 bpd starting in May.