Expert: Ukraine remains Azerbaijan’s reliable partner

Russia continues to strike energy facilities in Ukraine using missiles and drones. As a result of these airstrikes, millions of Ukrainians faced power outages, water cuts and the inability to provide other vital needs during a harsh winter.

Vira Konstantinova, expert on international issues, spoke in an interview with Report about the current state of Ukraine’s energy sector and the prospects for energy cooperation between Azerbaijan and Ukraine.

- To what extent did Russia’s actions affect the work of the Ukrainian energy sector? Can we talk about an emergency situation in Ukraine’s energy sector?

- Any strikes on civilian infrastructure is a war crime. This once again confirms the thesis that Russia cannot defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine by using terrorist methods against the civilian population. We must understand that in the structure of the energy mix of Ukraine, a significant part is held by the electric power industry, which is provided by nuclear generation at Ukrainian nuclear power plants, as well as thermal power plants, renewable energy sources - what is called maneuverable generation, which is important for balancing and controllability of the system in conditions of peak consumption loads. Russian occupying troops systematically fire at critical energy infrastructure in the hope that the Ukrainians will negotiate. Indeed, now in Ukraine they had to introduce schedules for planned power outages, which were probably last used on such a scale back in the 1990s. According to various estimates voiced by the Ukrainian authorities, the electric power segment suffered significantly, figures from 40 to more than 50% of the generating capacities were either completely destroyed or damaged. In terms of high-voltage lines, we have lost about 55-70% of the key elements of equipment, this concerns the transportation of electricity. In the gas sector, the situation is more stable, the heating season has begun throughout Ukraine, where it was technologically possible.

The Ukrainian energy segment showed a relatively good level of resistance, when all nuclear power units were turned off at one moment (automated protection systems at nuclear power plants worked), but Ukrainian power engineers managed not only to retain control over the electric power system, but also restore its integrity within a day. I believe that after the end of the war, this experience will be studied by other countries as a practical case.

- How vulnerable was the civilian sector to Russian shelling? Has the Ukrainian government developed measures to support the population in an emergency situation in the energy sector?

- The civil sector is always vulnerable if a neighbor decides to violate all norms of international law and occupy an independent country. What is more important to me is that in the conditions of war, the Ukrainian authorities promptly inform about potential threats and provide recommendations regarding preparation for various developments. For example, Ukrainian experts started talking about the tactics of strikes against critical infrastructure back in the summer. Realizing the tactics of the Russian leadership, and that the shelling will continue as long as Russia has the resources and financial capabilities to wage an unjust war of conquest, the Ukrainian authorities deployed ‘Points of Invincibility’ throughout the controlled territory of Ukraine so that in the conditions of a long emergency power outage, lack of heat, it would be possible to temporarily wait out the crisis period, while the Ukrainian power engineers would restore the normal functioning of the systems.

The shelling of critical infrastructure has the opposite effect, and only strengthens the Ukrainian society’s demand for the final defeat of the Russian army, the irreproachable restoration of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine within the internationally recognized borders of 1991.

- How does the Ukrainian society perceive the general situation? Are civil initiatives being developed to mitigate the effects of the energy emergency?

- It is fair to say that Ukraine is a country with serious experience in the volunteer movement, which we have received since 2014. As of today, volunteering has become simply massive. Donations for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already become commonplace in the current conditions. In addition, civil society remains active, many experts have moved to the status of volunteers and are trying to help Ukrainians from the de-occupied territories. Small and medium businesses are making efforts to provide these people with the necessary goods. As for mitigating the consequences of an emergency in the energy sector, there are private initiatives, when at the household level, many Ukrainian families purchase autonomous power systems in case of long power outages.

- How does Ukrainian business overcome the crisis restrictions? Can the current energy crisis become an impetus for the large-scale development of energy-saving technologies in Ukraine?

- Undoubtedly, Ukrainian business is at the stage of adaptation to the extraordinary conditions of functioning during the war. At the same time, perhaps the most demanded element for doing business at the moment is generators. If we consider the energy crisis as an impetus for energy-saving technologies, there are prerequisites for a technological boom. Before the war, Ukraine invested its efforts in the development of the renewable energy sector, and I believe this trend will continue after the war. The key is that the war must end, and it will end on Ukraine’s terms. While active hostilities are underway, defense systems and our Armed Forces require a significant focus in terms of investment.

- Should we expect a total blackout in Ukraine? Can this scenario be avoided and how?

- In fact, Ukraine has already experienced one blackout as a result of the attack on November 23, when for the first time in the history of our country, all four operating Ukrainian nuclear power plants stopped at the same time. Ukraine had a sufficient margin of safety, so one could restore power supply as soon as possible. Despite the proven high professionalism of our Air Force and the high percentage of efficiency, missile attacks on the power grid will remain a big problem. It is this problem that should be solved by the air defense and missile defense systems that come from our partners. The more there are, the more effective the protection of critical infrastructure will be. International pressure on Russia should increase, sanctions against key sectors of the Russian economy, such as the nuclear sector, should be comprehensive. Countries that want to preserve the world order, which is based on international law, and not on the right of the strong, must support restrictions against the aggressor and seek justice together with Ukraine.

- Is the organization of the ‘energy Ramstein’ that Ukraine’s Western partners are talking about now real? Will Western assistance help significantly modernize Ukraine’s energy sector? Can the modern energy infrastructure become a driver for the development of the post-war economy of Ukraine?

- Now we are talking not so much about modernization, but about stabilizing the functioning of the energy system. In the first stages, our energy system operator Ukrenergo received backup equipment from European operators. At the same time, the scale of damage requires prompt coordination of Ukraine’s needs. Therefore, the so-called ‘energy Ramstein’ is an important element of the strategy for overcoming the consequences of Russian shelling. The fact that the Russians are destroying Soviet-era equipment and replacing it with more modern equipment may be the key factor in hyper-modernization. It is no coincidence that they say that energy is the lifeblood of the economy. In addition, this also means that Ukraine will finally integrate into the EU even from a technological point of view. And of course, this will affect the pace of Ukraine’s economic development after the end of the war. At the same time, we must understand that the decentralization of energy, the introduction of advanced technologies into households will become an additional element of the economic boom, which requires significant investment.

- It is obvious that foreign investments and technologies will be attracted to restore Ukraine’s energy system. Do you see Azerbaijani companies among the participants in the restoration of the Ukrainian energy sector? How do you see the prospects for the development of energy cooperation between Azerbaijan and Ukraine after the end of the war?

- First of all, I would like to express my gratitude to the Republic of Azerbaijan and the people of Azerbaijan for the support that Ukrainians felt from the first days of a full-scale war. Many worthy sons of Azerbaijan joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine to repulse the occupying Russian troops. In addition, representatives of the Azerbaijani community help the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Azerbaijan came to the rescue when Ukraine needed oil and oil products in the first months of the war. Recently it became known that another humanitarian caravan with a batch of industrial transformers and generators left Azerbaijan for Ukraine in order to assist in stabilizing the energy supply. According to the information of Ukraine’s Embassy in Azerbaijan, the mentioned aid of a total value of about $850,000 and weighing more than 50 tons is sent to Ukraine in two stages.

Regarding the participation of Azerbaijani companies, I am sure that this is absolutely in the interests of our countries. In addition, given the growing role of Azerbaijan in ensuring the energy security of the EU, our countries can already lay the outlines of cooperation, based on Ukraine’s candidate status in the EU. While our country is fighting for freedom and justice, we remain a reliable partner for Azerbaijan. After the end of the war, there will be many mutually beneficial opportunities, including in the energy sector.

- The shelling of the critical infrastructure of Ukraine showed the whole world how vulnerable this area is. What measures to ensure the security of critical, primarily energy infrastructure, should be taken at the international level? What needs to change radically?

- The problem is that at the international level it is necessary to look for tools that would allow not only to secure critical infrastructure, but also to prevent any attempts to attack civilian objects in the future. The Geneva Conventions, which prohibit the destruction of civilian infrastructure, must work flawlessly. The paradox of the situation is that a country that has nuclear weapons, which is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, by the way - illegally taking this place, terrorizes and wants to occupy a non-nuclear country, whose independence it recognized in 1991, and still gave security guarantees. And now, violating the UN Statute, this country is attacking civilian infrastructure. It is necessary to radically change the entire system of international security, which was built after the results of the Second World War. The consensus must be strengthened regarding the inadmissibility of the use of force, the inviolability of the principle of non-violation of internationally recognized borders and territorial integrity.

Ukraine is the last wake-up call for the world community, which should lead to an understanding that the UN Statute is not a declarative thing. This is the basis for the coexistence and prosperity of nations, for which, de facto, Ukrainians are also fighting.