Official: Timely measures needed to prevent Caspian Sea from reaching disaster level

Relevant timely measures should be taken to fully research the level fluctuation of the Caspian Sea and prevent it from reaching the disaster level, said Nazim Mahmudov, the Head of Azerbaijan’s National Hydrometeorological Service, Report informs.

According to Mahmudov, the fact that the Caspian Sea is an inland body of water causes periodic fluctuations in its level. Up to 45 percent of the water in all the lakes on Earth is in the Caspian Sea, which is isolated from the world's oceans.

He noted that fluctuations in the level of the Caspian Sea have historically occurred regularly in different periods and even caused complications at certain times. Based on this, it is possible to say that mainly climatic and geological factors play a significant role in the level fluctuation of the Caspian Sea.

“However, since 1929, the level of the Caspian Sea began to fall sharply, and the process continued until 1977. During this period, the level of the Caspian Sea dropped by about 4 meters and fell to -29.05 meters according to the Baltic system. The level in 1977 is considered the lowest level of the Caspian Sea in recent times. Since 1978, the level of the Caspian Sea began to rise, and this process continued until 1995. During this period, the level of the Caspian Sea increased by approximately 2.65 meters, equaling -27.67 m with the Baltic system. From 1995 to 2010, a certain stabilization of the level of the Caspian Sea was observed. No sharp level fluctuations were recorded during this period,” the head of the National Hydrometeorological Service said.

According to him, since 2011, a sharp decline has been observed again.

Mahmudov emphasized that hydrometeorological observations in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea are carried out at stations under the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources:

“In order to study the hydrometeorological conditions of the Caspian Sea, regular observations are made on water level, temperature, salinity, color, transparency, wave height, precipitation data and other indicators at the stations of the marine observation network.”

The head of the service noted that according to the observation data of the Oil Rocks hydrometeorological station, the average annual level in 2021 was -28.14 meters with the Baltic system, -28.42 meters in 2022, and -28.69 meters in 2023. When comparing the average annual level for 2021-2023, a decrease of 55 cm was recorded in the Caspian Sea. According to the observation data of the same station, in June 2024, the average monthly level of the Caspian Sea was - 28.67 meters.

Based on the observations, it was found that the lowest level during the year is usually observed in December-February, he said adding that in March-July, the sea level begins to rise:

“The highest indicator of the level is recorded in June-July, which is related to the spring flooding in rivers. In July-August, the decrease in river flow and the increase in evaporation from the sea surface cause the sea level to gradually decrease to the winter minimum (December).”

Mahmudov also noted that it is very complicated to make a long-term, for instance, 5-10-year level fluctuation forecast of the Caspian Sea. The reason is that sea level fluctuations are related to climatic elements. In modern times, it is difficult to give a sea level forecast for more than 6 months.

“The Coordinating Committee for Hydrometeorology of the Caspian Sea (CASPCOM) prepares half-yearly scenarios of sea level change based on the joint data of the five Caspian littoral countries. The CASPCOM, established in 1994 with the support of the World Meteorological Organization, regularly organizes the exchange of hydrometeorological data of the Caspian littoral countries and joint coordinated activities on the Caspian Sea.”

The official also said that the sharp fluctuations in the level of the Caspian Sea, in turn, lead to a number of negative consequences.

Nazim Mahmudov emphasized the importance of fully investigating the process of the level fluctuation of the Caspian Sea and taking timely measures to prevent it from reaching the disaster level.