Baku. 5 November. REPORT.AZ/ The second phase of the US sanctions against Iran entered into force today, November 5, at 09.00 Baku time. More than 700 companies and individuals in Iran are affected. Some of them were not on the previous US sanctions list.
The US secretary of state has disclosed 12 tough demands set before Iran. Sanctions may be lifted if Tehran authorities fulfill the following requirements:
The conditions, listed by Mike Pompeo while speaking at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, DC, on Monday, will require Iran, in his words, to:
1.Declare to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) a full account of the prior military dimensions of its nuclear programme and permanently and verifiably abandon such work in perpetuity.
2.Stop enrichment and never pursue plutonium reprocessing, including closing its heavy water reactor.
3.Provide the IAEA with unqualified access to all sites throughout the entire country.
4. End its proliferation of ballistic missiles and halt further launching or development of nuclear-capable missile systems.
5.Release all US citizens as well as citizens of US partners and allies.
6.End support to Middle East "terrorist" groups, including Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
7.Respect the sovereignty of the Iraqi government and permit the disarming, demobilisation and reintegration of Shia militias.
8.End its military support for the Houthi rebels and work towards a peaceful, political settlement in Yemen.
9.Withdraw all forces under Iran's command throughout the entirety of Syria.
10.End support for the Taliban and other "terrorists" in Afghanistan and the region and cease harbouring senior al-Qaeda leaders.
11.End the Islamic Revolutionary Guard corps-linked Quds Force's support for "terrorists" and "militant" partners around the world.
12. End its threatening behaviour against its neighbours, many of whom are US allies, including its threats to destroy Israel and its firing of missiles at Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and threats to international shipping and destructive cyberattacks.
Pompeo said that sanctions had a great impact on the Iranian economy: "These sanctions have already had an enormous impact. We've already reduced Iranian crude oil exports by over a million barrels per day. That number will fall farther. There's a handful of places were countries that have already made significant reductions in their crude oil exports need a little bit more time to get to zero, and we're going to provide that to them."
Iran's daily oil exports dropped by 700,000 barrels in October.
From this point of view, experts believe that the price of oil will not top $80. Official Tehran can either sell oil in the "black market" or sell unregistered oil. As it is very dangerous and risky, the number of buyers is not expected to be significant. US government has granted sanctions waiver to eight countries, including close allies South Korea and Japan, as well as India, allowing them to keep buying Iranian oil after it reimposes sanctions on Tehran this week.
The pipeline, which supplies natural gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz field to Europe via Turkey, has been included in the list of non-sanctioned projects.
These states also undertook an obligation to reduce total oil imports to prevent price increases in exchange for this step of the United States. Allies may disappoint Tehran in the face of sanctions.
The previous years' experience has shown that Iran has sold most of its oil to China. The probability of such a situation is less this time. Because China is in conflict with the United States in terms of economics and is still violating the restrictions imposed by the Americans. One of the states that Iran trusts is Russia. Russia has been subjected to sanctions by the US and EU. Companies such as Lukoil and Zarubejneft have reportedly left Iran.
Iran's foreign policy course has the principle "to meet the enemy in foreign lands." From this point of view, the withdrawal of military or armed forces of Tehran from other lands, where the United States and Israel are present, or termination of support of armed groups means disarmament before the enemy. This is because the Iran has managed to reduce their pressure on it.
So, where can sanctions take Iran to? It will be very difficult for the Iranian authorities to fulfill 12 requirements. Two things may happen at this time: first, the government will give a new impetus to the United States. It also prolongs the life of the regime for some time. The loss of power of those in the government will be less. It can be temporary. The speeches of former Iranian presidents Mohammad Khatami and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are designed for this. They warn the authorities that the situation is serious. Mohammad Khatami warned that new protests would begin in the country: "If the authorities repeat their mistakes, then criticisms will be replaced by protest actions. Then the country's fate is unclear." He recalled that the revolution had accepted the reform, and that those who wanted to reform were also in the regime: "If people start to believe that reformers do not do a job in society, then the people will turn to those who want to change the regime."
So, the 12 requirements are also the tasks set before the Iranian authorities...