Expert: $1 billion trade turnover between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan quite achievable

A trade turnover of $1 billion between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan is a completely achievable figure, Kazakh political analyst Talgat Kaliyev told Report.

According to the Kazakh side, in 2024 the trade turnover between the two countries amounted to $533 million.

"In the coming years, both countries can not only reach this level of mutual trade but even surpass it. The driving force behind this will be the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), which in recent years has grown in significance and has become an operational and necessary project for many countries—especially relevant given the current geopolitical situation," said Kaliyev.

According to him, active development is underway to expand the capacity of the TITR, where Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are key links. This will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the growth of trade between the two nations.

"Firstly, the growing transit indicators through the TITR will be reflected in both countries' trade statistics. Secondly, efforts are already underway to increase the capacity of Kazakhstan's port of Kuryk, modernize the country's railways, and on Azerbaijan's side, to upgrade the Baku port and Azerbaijan Railways. There is also a synchronization of customs, tax, and freight procedures between China and Europe, including return routes," the analyst noted.

Commenting on the start of negotiations between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan on a new Convention to eliminate double taxation on income and property, Kaliyev emphasized that this reflects the intensification of flows between the two countries. He also cited additional factors that will help achieve the $1 billion trade turnover target.

"In the future, with Kazakhstan's oil production expected to grow after the Tengiz expansion project is completed, the transit of Kazakh oil via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline will also increase. I should also mention the Trans-Caspian fiber-optic communication line (FOCL) project, which is expected to be completed by 2027. And in the future, there is also a project to lay an electric cable along the bottom of the Caspian Sea," said the political analyst.

He also reminded that Kazakhstan is ready to increase exports of 130 types of non-resource-based goods to Azerbaijan worth over $340 million.

"Expanding the capacity of our seaports—Aktau, Kuryk, and Baku—will support the growth of exports from both sides. Tankers and ferries will operate more frequently, which will stimulate the emergence of new service companies, insurance firms, and security companies responsible for cargo safety. All of this will promote more active communication between relevant enterprises of both countries and strengthen business ties, which in turn will collectively lead to the expected growth in trade turnover that has long been around the $500 million mark," Kaliyev concluded.