World Bank announces two economic growth scenarios for China

The coronavirus pandemic is expected to sharply slow growth in developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific as well as China, the World Bank said in an economic update on Monday.

The bank said precise growth forecasts were challenging, given the rapidly changing situation. Still, its baseline now called for growth in developing economies in the region to slow to 2.1% in 2020, and to -0.5% in a lower-case scenario, compared to an estimated growth of 5.8% in 2019.

In China, where the coronavirus outbreak originated in late December, growth projected to slow to 2.3% in the baseline scenario, or as low as 0.1% in the lower-case situation, compared to growth of 6.1% in 2019.

The region faced an unusual combination of "disruptive and mutually reinforcing events," the report said. "Significant economic pain seems unavoidable in all countries."

Prior projections estimated that nearly 35 million people would escape poverty in the region in 2020, including over 25 million in China alone, the bank said.