ING revises inflation expectations for Azerbaijan for 2026

ING Group, the Netherlands' biggest banking group, forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 5.3% in 2026 and 8.9% in 2027, Report informs referring to ING data.

Expectations for the current year have decreased by 0.4 percentage points (pp) compared to the previous forecast, while the forecast for 2027 remains unchanged.

According to ING, inflation in Azerbaijan in 2025 will be 5.6%.

The bank's analysts expect average annual inflation to be 5.2% in the first quarter of 2026 (previously 5.7%), 5.4% in the second quarter (previously 5.9%), 5.3% in the third quarter (previously 5.7%), and 5.5% in the fourth quarter (previously 5.7%).

According to forecasts from the Azerbaijani Ministry of Economy, average annual inflation in the country will be 5.4% this year, 4.8% in 2026, and 4.5% in 2027. According to the latest forecasts from the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (October 2025), annual inflation will be around 6% this year and around 5.7% in 2026.

The UN, meanwhile, forecasts inflation in Azerbaijan at 3.6% this year and 3.1% next year. The World Bank expects average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 2.3% in 2025-2026.

The Asian Development Bank forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.

International rating agency Moody's forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 4% and 3% this year and next, respectively. Fitch Ratings forecasts 5.3% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026. Fitch Solutions forecasts 5.7% in 2025, 5.5% in 2026, and 4.8% in 2027.

According to the State Statistics Committee, average annual inflation in Azerbaijan was 2.2% in 2024 and 5.7% in January-November 2025.