IMF predicts economic growth in Azerbaijan in 2025 at up to 3.5%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Azerbaijan's economic growth to slow to 3.5% in 2025, Report informs referring to the fund's data.

"Growth is projected to decelerate to 3.5 percent in 2025, as the impact of investment diminishes and hydrocarbon production remains subdued, and the output gap closes by 2026. The economy is projected to expand by 2.5 percent in the medium term," the IMF noted.

According to forecasts, the country's GDP will increase by 2.5% in 2026, 2.4% annually in 2027 and 2028, and 2.5% in 2029. Thus, the IMF estimates the average annual growth of the Azerbaijani economy in 2025–2029 at 2.66%.

"The external position is expected to weaken in the medium term, with shrinking trade surpluses from lower hydrocarbon production and prices and subdued non-hydrocarbon exports, but FX reserves will remain strong. Inflation is projected to remain in the CBA target band of 4±2 in the medium term, assuming broadly stable international food and energy prices and continued fiscal prudence."

According to the forecast of Azerbaijan's Economy Ministry, GDP growth in 2025 is expected to be at 3.5%, and the Central Bank of the country estimates it at 3.3%. In 2024, the economy of Azerbaijan grew by 4.1%, but in January-February 2025, the growth rate slowed to 0.2%.

According to Azerbaijan's Economy Ministry, the average annual inflation in the country in 2025 will be 4.6%, and in 2026 it will decrease to 4%. In January of this year, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan predicted inflation at 5.5% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026. The average annual inflation in Azerbaijan in 2024 was 2.2%, and in January-February 2025 it increased to 5.4%.