IMF forecasts stable public debt levels for Azerbaijan until 2030

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Azerbaijan's total public and publicly guaranteed debt to remain stable at 28% of GDP in 2025, Report informs, citing the IMF.

The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to maintain a steady trajectory over the medium term, reaching 28.9% in 2026, 29% in 2027, 29.1% in 2028, and 29.3% by 2029.

When excluding state guarantees, the government debt alone is also projected to stay consistent: 21.4% in 2025, 22.4% in 2026, 22.7% in 2027, 23.1% in 2028, and 23.5% in 2029.

According to the IMF, Azerbaijan's total public and publicly guaranteed debt stood at 27.6% of GDP in 2024.

Official statistics show that as of January 1, 2025, Azerbaijan’s total public debt was 27.43 billion manats. Of this, external debt accounted for 8.77 billion manats (approximately $5.13 billion), or 6.9% of GDP, while domestic debt amounted to 18.7 billion manats, or 14.8% of GDP.

In terms of repayment timelines, 49% of the external debt is due within the next five years, 44.9% in 5–10 years, and 6.1% in over 10 years.

By lender type, 63.3% of Azerbaijan's external debt is owed to multilateral financial institutions, 27% to Eurobond holders, and 9.7% to bilateral lenders. The Asian Development Bank remains the largest creditor, holding 35.1% of the external debt, followed by Eurobond investors (27%) and the World Bank (15.8%).