EDB forecasts slower global economic growth in 2026

The global economy is expected to slow slightly in 2026 compared with the dynamics seen in 2024–2025, according to a forecast by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), Report informs.

The outlook was presented by Yevgeny Vinokurov, Deputy Chairman of the EDB Management Board and Chief Economist, during the presentation of the bank's Macroeconomic Forecast for 2026–2028.

"Growth will be maintained, but it will be more moderate. This is largely due to adaptation to new rules of the game, primarily related to trade barriers and tariffs," Vinokurov said. According to EDB estimates, the US economy will grow by about 1.6%, while the eurozone is expected to expand by around 1%. China will continue to act as the main driver of global growth, with its economy potentially growing by 4.6%.

EDB analysts believe that inflation in the US and the eurozone will remain above target levels in 2026–2028. At the same time, interest rate dynamics will differ. In the United States, declining consumer prices will slow due to rising costs amid tariff disputes. According to the EDB forecast, the European Central Bank will complete its rate-cutting cycle in 2025 and begin gradually raising interest rates in 2026–2027.