"Velvet revolution" in Armenia - what is going to change? - COMMENT

Baku. 26 April. REPORT.AZ/ Rally of “My Step” initiative started on April 13 in Armenia and demanding resignation of prime minister Serzh Sargsyan, has reached its goal on April 23. Naturally, there were supporters and critics of this rally in Armenia and outside the country. Hence, those who wanted Sargsyan to leave the power were generally dominant and “My Step” initiative has won.

So it turns out that Russia has left his cadre raised for 30 years from former USSR? Or does Russia is giving up on Armenia? Or does Moscow abandon security system was established by Armenia? Maybe the Kremlin is moving its military base from this area? Will the occupied territories of Azerbaijan be liberated as a result of the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan? Will Russia want this occupation to end? Will NATO and the European Union open its doors to Armenia after this resignation? Will Armenia and world Armenians abandon their territorial claims to neighboring states, Azerbaijan and Turkey with this resignation? Maybe Armenians will abandon claims on so-called history and live peacefully? Will the Armenian government be cleansed of Russian troops?

Will the future power in Armenia quit Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which were established on the initiative of Russia? And so and so forth.

In fact, our aim in raising these questions is not to diminish efforts made by opponents in the neighboring state for Serzh Sargsyan 's resignation. We just want to clarify the question, "What will change in Armenia after Sargsyan 's quit.

Nikol Pashinyan on April 23 announced the steps to be taken at the rally on Republic Square and said: "The first step was the resignation of Serj Sargisyan. The second step is the appointment of prime minister by parliament, then formation of a temporary government and holding extraordinary elections.

I would like to unequivocally emphasize that the Velvet Revolution can not remain unfinished. We need to complete it. I hope you will push that to the limit until achieving victory.

Let Serzh Sargisyan and the Republican Party not to hope they will be able to rule the country with the "shadow government" in this situation. It is better for them to forget about this.

He also told the Russian media in the square that if people trust him to be prime minister, he will not refuse: “Now the power in Armenia is in the hands of the people. Obviously, it is useless to resist it”.

In any case, extraordinary elections are the major part of the "velvet revolution”. If this political campaign is not held, then the rallies will turn to different logical directions. Notably, according to the results of the parliamentary elections held on April 2, 2017, Serzh Sargsyan's Republican Party won.

49.12 per cent of voters in the ruling political organization, 27.32 % of the Tsarukyan bloc, 7.77 % of the“Way Out” (Yelk) Faction head Nikol Pashinyan and 6.57 % of the Dashnaktsutiun Party voted for the ruling political organization. Thus, 65 out of 105 seats in the parliament took power by government - 58 seats by Republicans, 7 – by Dashnaks. Opposition had 40 seats including 9 steats of “Way out” block headed by Nikol Pashinyan and 31 - "Prosperous Armenia" Party.

Therefore, putting prime minister up for vote in a parliament with such a constituent rebuilds victory of Sargisian’s party. Or "Gazprom" 's representative in Armenia give free rein to election of Karen Karapetyan as prime minister. Thus, one of the "steps" in Armenia is the transfer of power inherited from Serzh Sargsyan to the movement. Here's a very interesting question: Will Russia also abandon billionaire Karen Karapetyan, acting prime minister and representative of Gazprom in Armenia? 

If Nikol Pashinyan wants to complete "velvet revolution", then Karapetyan, who is regarded as a heritage of Serzh Sargsyan, must leave. In this case, Armenian billionaire may return to power only as a result of extraordinary elections. Meanwhile, on April 23, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev had telephone conversation with Karen Karapetyan. They discussed bilateral relations and events in Armenia. Medvedev said they support the friendly Armenian people.

Incidentally, the US Embassy in Armenia has called for a peaceful settlement of the protests in Yerevan, and not to use force against protesters and journalists.Following the resignation of Sargsyan, Armenian President Armen Sarkissian received the US Ambassador to Yerevan Richard Mills. During the meeting, a number of issues related to the US-Armenia relations were discussed. In general, Armen Sarkissian tried to maintain his impartiality at protest actions: “Happenings in our country may have serious consequences”. From this point of view, it will not be ruled out that he will remain in this post until the new parliament is formed.

In fact, Serzh Sargsyan came to power in Armenia through bloodshed. Presidential elections were held on February 19, 2008. Candidate from opposition was Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the first president of Armenia. The opposite party argued that the results of the election were falsified in favor of Serzh Sargsyan. As a result of mass protests, 1 serviceman, 7 peaceful protesters were killed, some were missing and 230 were injured. Protest that started on February 20 lasted for ten days. Ter-Petrosyan urged his supporters to stop the strike. During the protests in the past, Levon Ter-Petrosyan also held talks. So it turns out that Nikol Pashinyan and his supporters are new forces. It is likely that Ter-Petrosyan could be represented in the new government that will be established. It can even be predicted that he will be president again.

In addition, on April 22, the "Prosperous Armenia" party, which is close to the government represented in the parliament, also supported the strike. It is said that leader of this organization, Gagik Tsarukyan did not participate in a meeting of parliament that elected Serzh Sargsyan as prime minister. This means that their role in Sargsyan’s dismissal is not ruled out. It should be borne in mind that Karen Karapetyan and Gagik Tsarukyan were ‘fighting’ for markets. Then, the government intervened in the market and imposed a new tax policy on Tsarukyan.

In fact, in the last days of protests by “My Step” initiative on April 22-23, more protesters took part in rally.

In general, the rally started with the support of Nikol Pashinyan, also supported by Armenian lobby in the US, France, Germany, Russia and other countries. The events that took place in Armenia in the last 11 days, Sargsyan’s resignation on seventh day, the fulfillment of the nation's resignation give some grounds for drawing conclusions. Armenia is a hybrid state. It can exist on three stands - diaspora, church and Moscow. Sargsyan left as a result of agreement among those three stands. Armenia is trying to break away from Russia. Previously, there were attempts in this direction. But it seems impossible that this "velvet revolution" will manage it. Removal of Russian cadres in Ukraine resulted in the annexation of the Crimea and military operations in the east of Ukraine. This step of Armenia can create problems for the future of the state.

In any case, this "step" will end with the arrival of new forces in Armenia. Because Armenia is not an independent state yet. Otherwise, Serzh Sargsyan who still holds the citizenship of Azerbaijan couldn’t “prance” in Armenian policy.

Robert Kocharyan, his compatriot, couldn’t be the president in this country.

Therefore, the Armenian leadership, as a rule, was a puppet in the hands ofRussia. Nagorno-Karabakh's occupation by Armenia is also one of the projects of Russia in the Caucasus. The new forces coming to power do not seem to get out of the occupied Azerbaijani lands. In this regard, only names and surnames of the staff will be new. Probability of quitting CIS, Eurasian Economic Union, or Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is smal. There can only be a failed attempt. This "step" can create a little distance between Armenia and Russia. Therefore, it is not ruled out that the movement will continue in the future.

Finally, Armenia is one of the region's unstable and risky areas. It is difficult to predict the events there. Because this state is not owned by the public and ruled from abroad. In these processes, the population is simply used to show interests. Just like the "velvet revolution". Serzh Sargsyan said in his interview before becoming a Prime Minister that 60 percent of the population is dissatisfied. This potential energy of society turned into kinetic energy as a result of support.