US-dollar rate may drop to 1.60 AZN

Baku. 15 March. REPORT.AZ/ Official exchange rate of US dollar in Azerbaijan may fall to 1.65AZN/USD in first half of the year.

Report’s expert group expects the demand for US dollar to drop as result of cut money supply adjusting with current situation, along with adjustment of the balance of payment, against the background of rising oil prices and downward tendency in import. Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) blocked speculative transactions with foreign currencies within frame of sterilization operations.

Report’s experts suppose that financial stability will push people to gradually turn to manat and dollarization will fall from present 80% to 50% in initial stage. Forecasted 65-70 USD/barrel for oil in 2017 will accelerate decline of US dollar. Another positive factor that may influence manat is an expected foreign tourist inflow. Tourist flow in summer season may raise USD supply, which in its turn may push exchange rate down to 1.60 AZN/USD. Notably, earlier outlook by Report’s expert group envisaged USD rate at 1.65AZN/USD.

Experts of the agency don’t expect any negative tendencies in world economy, including oil prices and stock markets until second quarter of 2018: “This will eventually lead to short-term financial stability of developing countries”.