European Parliament elections 2024 and what it means for Azerbaijan

Amid the looming European Parliament elections that are scheduled for June 2024, several questions are raised. What will be the next EP composition, will the predictions of the shift into the far-right territory prove right, will the French right-wing politicians impose their will and find a way to change the head of the European Commission Ursula Von Der Leyen and what will be the stance of the Parliament on Azerbaijan?

All these questions are strangely correlated. Or maybe not so strangely. In any case, the upcoming elections will prove to be a tipping point for the entire European continent and for the European Parliament as a political institution in particular.

To understand the next EP elections, it is worth to clarify certain basic points. European elections are held every five years. The last European elections took place in May 2019. While the European Commission is the EU’s executive branch, responsible for proposing and implementing EU law and the day-to-day running of the EU, the European Parliament is in charge of representing the interests of EU citizens, and the Council, representing the interests of the countries, shape Commission proposals and, if they agree on them, adopt them.

So, why are these European Parliament elections different from the previous ones? Mainly due to the rise of the ultra-conservative and far right beliefs and sentiments all across the continent. All across Europe, the political parties that are closer to populist and nationalist political views have gained traction, their representation will seemingly be stronger than ever before and that presents risks if not potential points of conflict in the future relationshiop between the new composition of the European Parliament and Azerbaijan.

During a recent rally in Marseille, Marine Le Pen and her Rassemblement party’s president, Jordan Bardella, confirmed their willingness to roll back the European Union’s green deal and take back multiple powers from Brussels – including the right to impose extremely aggressive and dangerous anti-migrant laws. Current polls suggest that this agenda will gain up a record 30% of votes for Rassemblement, and inflict a humiliating defeat on President Emmanuel Macron.

According to The Guardian, “the Eurosceptic, nationalist right is likely to top polls in nine EU states – including founding members Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands, as well as France – and come second or third in nine more, including Germany.”

In Rome, where Europe’s centre-left gathered to launch its own campaign, the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, warned that “the very soul of Europe is at risk”.

So, what does it really mean for Azerbaijan? Well, with the European People’s Party being one of the driving forces of the future elections and with their internal conflicts between moderate and far right elements inside the same party, the escalation of rhetoric might be inevitable.

While the EPP, which is a conservative center-right party, has radically shifted further to the right, one of the main figures that pose a threat to the relations between the institution and Azerbaijan, will be Francois-Xavier Bellamy.

A hardline, ultra-religious, catholic philosophy specialist, Bellamy, a member of the French Les Républicains party’s hard right wing, is a constant nuisance for Azerbaijan and consistently presented and presents a viewpoint of religious battle of civilizations between Azerbaijan and Armenia (which he considers to be a cradle of Christianity and an important member and ally in the principle of European values in the region).

His conflict with a more tempered head of the European Commission, Ursula Von Der Leyen, has entered a new stage when the French politician has openly refused to support her for the new nomination, claiming she is not the right person for the job.

“[Von der Leyen] was not our candidate in 2019 but Emmanuel Macron’s,” Bellamy said during an interview with radio station France Inter on Tuesday. “LR won’t support her because her record falls short of Europe’s expectations.”

The conflict between the French Les Republicains party and Von Der Leyen has accelerated in the recent years, with the former accusing the latter of giving up on the idea of stopping immigration and pushing the agenda of ecologists and the “far left”. One of the moments that particularly irritated the supporters of the belief that the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is religious, was when Von Der Leyen called Azerbaijan “a reliable partner” in its strategy of energy provisions to Europe.

On that matter, Bellamy stated that the EU’s decision on Karabakh is becoming a case of Parliament vs. the Commission, and that the Parliament has voted to support introducing sanctions on Azerbaijan but the European Commission decided to not listen.

Nevertheless, within his own country, the support for Bellamy is quite low. POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, that was published in February, shows the EPP leading the race at a European level. In France, however, Bellamy and Les Républicains are polling around 7 percent — slightly above the minimal 5 percent threshold to obtain MEPs.

Undeniably, the new European Parliament composition might present a problem in discourse with Azerbaijan, particularly coming from the side of the French members, but the main interlocutor remains to be European Commission and as long as the relationship between Azerbaijan and commision remains cordial, the criticism of the members of the parliament might end up to be inconsequential.

Jamal Mustafayev