Forbes: At current rate, it would take Russia centuries and tens of millions of casualties to capture Ukraine

At the current pace of the conflict, it could take Russia centuries and result in tens of millions of casualties to successfully capture Ukraine, Report informs, citing Forbes.

Russian forces managed to capture around 68 square miles (176 km²) of Ukraine in April. But it cost them 4,800 vehicles and more than 36,600 dead and wounded troops, according to one statistician who collects data mostly from official Ukrainian sources including the general staff in Kyiv.

In the same month, Ukrainian losses were “minimal,” concluded analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting in Poland.

Ukraine sprawls across 233,000 square miles (603,500 km²), 19% of which is under Russian occupation. At the current rates of advance and loss, the Russians would capture the rest of Ukraine in the year 2256 at the cost of 101 million casualties. The current population of Russia is 144 million.

Incredibly, staggering losses in people and equipment haven’t yet crippled the Russian military in Ukraine. The Kremlin is equipping its forces with thousands of civilian vehicles, including scooters, compact cars and even at least one bus.

Meanwhile, it’s recruiting 30,000 troops per month, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, commander of US Army forces in Europe, told US lawmakers on April 3. Since many of the wounded eventually return to the front line, the Russian armed forces recruit more people every month than they lose.

As a result, Cavoli said, the Russian force in Ukraine is actually growing. It now numbers no fewer than 600,000 troops, “the highest level over the course of the war and almost double the size of the initial invasion force” in February 2022, Cavoli said.

How the Kremlin has managed to sustain and even expand its recruitment effort comes down to two things: money and mood. Record enlistments are “driven by high sign-on bonuses and speculation that the war will soon be over,” explained Janis Kluge, deputy head of the Eastern Europe and Eurasia Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

"Losing a lot to gain very little in Ukraine and sustaining the costly effort through massive spending, Russian leaders are walking an economic and political tightrope," reads the Forbes article.

"But the danger hasn’t dissuaded them. According to Cavoli, Putin and his ministers and generals are committed to a long war—one that could widen beyond Ukraine. "