ISW: Protests in Iran entered new phase, pressure against regime increasing

The Mahsa Amini protest movement has likely entered a new phase, although it is unclear what pattern of anti-regime activity will characterize this new phase, said the US Institute for the Study of War.

Protest activity has increased substantially in recent days, including at least 15 protests on February 16, 12 protests on February 19, 14 on February 20, and seven on February 21. This increased turnout is the most that CTP has recorded since assessing that the Mahsa Amini movement culminated in January 2023. It is also unclear how long this uptick in protest activity will last.

The Washington Post reported on February 19 that protesters in Saghez, Kurdistan Province-the birthplace of Mahsa Amini and site of significant anti-regime activity in recent months-are preparing for further unrest. Protesters reportedly stated that the regime has failed to address their grievances and that they have begun stockpiling materials to fight security forces, including Molotov cocktails.

According to ISW, Iran continues to face severe economic issues, which may fuel increased political attacks against President Ebrahim Raisi and his administration:

"Numerous regime officials have expressed growing alarm over the economic situation in recent days as well."