ISW: Appointment of new commanders in Russian Army aims to eliminate failures

Russia's appointment of new commanders in four military districts in Ukraine is likely part of an effort to distance the Russian military from past failures and to prepare the Russian military for a renewed large-scale offensive in Ukraine, Report informs, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported that Russian forces have likely suffered up to 200,000 casualties since the start of its invasion of Ukraine. The UK MoD reported on February 17 that Russian military servicemembers and paramilitary company personnel have suffered 175,000 to 200,000 causalities in Ukraine, with 40,000 to 60,000 of those killed. The UK MoD reported that Wagner Group fighters have likely experienced a casualty rate of up to 50 percent and that the Russian military's casualty rate has significantly increased since the start of partial mobilization in September 2022. Western officials reported on February 2 that Russian forces sustained almost 200,000 casualties since the beginning of the invasion. Many more Russian forces may have died in Ukraine than the UK MoD suggests, as independent Russian outlet Meduza recently reported that over 32,000 Wagner Group convict recruits alone are dead or missing. The high Russian casualty rate, especially the high ratio of deaths to injuries, continues to have deleterious effects on the Russian military's combat effectiveness and is likely prompting Russian officials to continue crypto-mobilization efforts," the ISW said.

The institute noted that the Kremlin will likely subsume elements of Belarus' defense industrial base (DIB) as part of Moscow's larger effort to reequip the Russian military to support a protracted war against Ukraine. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on February 17 that Belarus' aerospace industry is ready to produce Su-25 ground attack aircraft for the Russian military with the support of Russian technology transfers.