Expert: No doubt Russian air defense caused AZAL plane crash

There remains no doubt that the cause of the AZAL airline plane crash was the operation of Russian air defense systems near the Grozny airport, according to political scientist and Central Asia expert Arkady Dubnov. For this reason, Baku expects Moscow to take responsibility for the incident and pay compensation.

Report informs citing Tengrinews that Dubnov stated, "Today, December 27, after this terrible catastrophe, there is no doubt that it was caused by the operation of Russian air defense systems near the Grozny airport. It only remains unclear whether there was an identification error when aiming and the Pantsir-S1 missile mistook the civilian aircraft for a Ukrainian UAV, attacking it directly, or the plane was hit by fragments of an exploding missile that destroyed a drone."

"Whether Russian aviation authorities and regional authorities in Chechnya knew about this can only be determined after a thorough examination of the already recovered 'black boxes'," said Dubnov.

According to him, the initial version about birds hitting the turbine as the cause of the incident is untenable, as there are facts disproving it.

"In the first hours after the tragedy, Rosaviatsiya, referring to conversations between controllers and pilots, reported the plane's collision with a flock of birds. Most likely, the pilots indeed thought so during the flight... However, multiple through-holes in the fuselage and wings found on the plane's remains categorically disprove the 'bird' version and indicate external impact," he said.

The political analyst noted that publications in Azerbaijan's Caliber.az and Euronews agency, citing sources in Azerbaijan's government that pointed to Russian air defense as the cause of the AZAL plane crash, seriously prove that official Baku will seek to uncover the true causes of the air disaster. "Moreover, official Baku expects Moscow to take responsibility for what happened and pay appropriate compensation," Dubnov believes.

The expert emphasized that Baku's position regarding the incident appears "measured and diplomatic, yet very principled."

"A country's dignity and its citizens' lives cannot be subject to behind-the-scenes agreements," he said.

However, according to Dubnov, despite what happened, relations between Baku and Moscow won't undergo significant changes, as Azerbaijan and Russia are connected by common geopolitical interests.

The expert also recalled that in the history of Russia and Azerbaijan, a similar incident occurred when Azerbaijan accidentally shot down a Russian military helicopter on the border with Armenia in 2020, resulting in the death of two Russian pilots. Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry then apologized, promised to investigate, and punish those responsible.