US expert: Consequences could be unprecedentedly disastrous for Armenia

“Armenia failed to drag Russia into the Second Karabakh War, and now it's desperately trying to get France involved in an attempt to delay its promised withdrawal from that region that was agreed to in the trilateral statement signed by the leaders of Azerbaijan, Russia, and Armenia in November 2020,” US expert and PhD in political science Andrew Korybko, who lives in Moscow, told Report.

According to him, Yerevan believes that it can play Moscow and Paris off against one another to its benefit, but this approach will fail, not to mention the risk that it'll provoke even more mutual distrust between Russia and Armenia than already exists as a result of Pashinyan delaying his side's withdrawal from Karabakh: “Russia's options are limited, however, since it can't realistically force Armenia to withdraw nor can it take control of its foreign policy and prevent France from meddling in the South Caucasus.

"For the time being, Russia will therefore likely continue employing diplomatic means for convincing Armenia to fulfill the November 2020 agreement, though it might not succeed and France could gain more influence over Armenia in the coming future,” Korybko said.

According to the US expert, it remains unclear whether these changing dynamics will lead to another conflict, but in the event that one erupts, Armenia shouldn't expect Russia or France to go to war against Azerbaijan: “Armenia would decisively lose in that scenario, and the consequences could be unprecedentedly disastrous for it. Its people should therefore pressure their government to comply with its international obligations as soon as possible in order to prevent that from happening.”