IMF updates Azerbaijan's public debt forecasts until 2031

According to the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2025, the total public and publicly guaranteed debt of Azerbaijan will amount to 27.6% of GDP against the previously projected 28% of GDP, Report informs referring to the IMF.

This indicator is expected to remain at a stable level in the medium term. According to the forecast, in 2026 the level of public debt will reach 28.6% of GDP (previously - 28.9%), in 2027 - 28.9% (previously - 29%), in 2028 - 29.1% (unchanged), in 2029 - 29.6% of GDP (previously - 29.3%), and in 2030 it will amount to 29.4% of GDP (previously not projected). If only public debt is considered without taking into account government guarantees, its share in GDP will also remain stable in the forecast period: in 2025 - 21% of GDP (previously - 21.4%), in 2026 - 22.2% (previously - 22.4%), in 2027 - 22.7% (unchanged), in 2028 - 23.1% (unchanged), in 2029 - 23.8% (previously - 23.5%), and in 2030 it will remain at the same level - 23.8% (previously not forecast).

According to the IMF, in 2024, the total public and publicly guaranteed debt amounted to 27.6% of GDP. According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance of Azerbaijan, by the end of 2025, the total amount of Azerbaijan's public debt (external and internal) will reach $17.061 billion (22.2% of GDP), and by 2026 it will grow to $19.235 billion (20.1% of the projected GDP). According to official statistics, as of April 1, 2025, the total volume of Azerbaijan's public debt amounted to $15.663 billion.

Of this, external debt accounts for $5.075 billion, which corresponds to 6.6% of GDP, and internal debt - $10.588 billion or 13.8% of GDP. The distribution of external debt by maturity is as follows: 49.9% is due within the next 5 years, 44.2% - in the period from 5 to 10 years, 5.9% - for long-term obligations over 10 years.

By creditor, 63.3% of external debt is owed to multilateral financial institutions, 27% - to Eurobonds placed on external markets, 9.7% - to loans from bilateral financial institutions. The largest creditors are the Asian Development Bank (35.1%), followed by holders of Eurobonds (27%) and the World Bank (15.8%).