Fitch: Improved external outlook has further reduced risk of disorderly devaluation

Fitch forecasts the current account returns to a surplus of 7.9% of GDP in 2021, from last year's deficit of 0.5% before narrowing to average 5.3% in 2022-2023, mainly driven by our lower forecast average oil price (of USD55/b in 2022 and USD53/b in 2023, from USD63/b this year) but still the highest in the peer group, Report informs, citing the agency's statement, affirming Azerbaijan's covereign rating.

"The net sovereign asset position is projected to increase to 84.1% of GDP at end-2023, from 83.1% at end-2020, compared with the 'BB' median of -2.1%," Fitch said.

According to it, the improved external outlook has further reduced the risk of a disorderly devaluation of the 1.7AZN/USD exchange rate de facto peg.