IEA maintains global oil production forecast for 2024-2025

In August, global oil supply rose by 80,000 barrels per day, reaching a total of 103.5 million barrels per day, according to the monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Report informs via Interfax.

The report highlighted that disruptions due to political conflict in Libya, along with maintenance in Norway and Kazakhstan, were balanced by increased output from Guyana, Brazil, and other countries.

In August, Libya was a key focus, with production dropping to 500,000 barrels per day from 1.2 million barrels per day in July.

With Libyan production remaining low in early September, the crisis is expected to have a more significant impact on global supplies this month compared to last year.

Analysts forecast that global oil supply will increase by 660,000 barrels per day this year, reaching a record high of 102.9 million barrels per day.

In 2025, it is expected to rise by another 2.1 million barrels per day, reaching 105 million barrels per day.

Non-OPEC+ countries are projected to boost production by 1.5 million barrels per day this year and next year.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ may reduce production by 810,000 barrels per day in 2024 but could increase it by 540,000 barrels per day next year if voluntary cuts remain in place.

In its August report, the IEA also anticipated oil supplies to rise to 102.9 million barrels per day this year and 105 million barrels per day next year.

The IEA estimates that even if declines continue, global oil reserves could increase by an average of 1.1 million barrels per day next year.