Report: Azerbaijani manat rate may face external threats

Baku. 7 December. REPORT.AZ/ To stabilize Azerbaijani manat rate it may face a threat coming from the main trade partners of Azerbaijan. Analytical Group of Report News Agency notes that these threats will intensify even further from the third quarter of 2018.

The most dangerous for the Azerbaijani manat among them is the probability of a fall in the Russian ruble. So, in January-February 2018, new US sanctions are expected to be imposed on Russian financial markets. If we add here a possible decline in oil prices, the Russian ruble may suddenly fall.

Another serious threat is the process of reducing the lira in Turkey. Notably, Turkey is a country with a high deficit of foreign trade. In 2017, this figure is expected to reach $ 80 billion. While this deficit is balanced by portfolio and little by direct investments, however, in case of further increase of the discount rate in the US, the volume of investments will be significantly reduced, which will lead to depreciation of lira.

Another, but the greatest danger - the slowdown of the Chinese economy. The private sector of the country is facing problems as a result of US trade sanctions, which, in turn, puts pressure on the CNY exchange rate. The fall of the Chinese yuan may lead to a sharp decline of not only manat, but all world currencies, in particularly in developing countries.

Analytical Group believes that at the moment there is no internal threat to the Azerbaijani manat: "AZN will maintain a stable course and may even strengthen slightly in accordance with the global conjuncture. However, let’s not forget about external factors. The floating exchange rate, the impact of external factors this time will immediately affect the rate of manat”.