Forecast: US-dollar rate will decline a bit more in Azerbaijan

Baku. 11 August. REPORT.AZ/ US dollar rate may drop to 1.60 AZN / USD in 2018 in Azerbaijan.

Analytical Group of Report News Agency informs, by the end of 2017, dollar rate will remain stable at 1.70 AZN.

"Traditionally, the rise in imports due to the start of the school season in autumn raises the demand for the dollar.

However, this process ended in July. Thus, importers have already ordered their goods and completed their money transfers.Foreign currency demand will drop to a minimum because of the fall in the number of Azerbaijani tourists abroad in autumn and winter.On the contrary, there is no significant decline in the number of tourists visiting Azerbaijan”, - analysts said.

One of the main reasons for the stable rate of the US dollar is loans received by Azerbaijan under the energy projects this year which have entered domestic foreign exchange market. Notably, World Bank allocated $ 800 mln to Azerbaijan, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) $ 600 mln, Asian Development Bank $ 500 mln.In addition, Asian Development Bank allocated $ 500 mln to the financial market stabilization for 2017.

Also, $ 750 million allocated by Asian Development Bank (ADB) to "Azerishig" JSC  for the reconstruction of the electricity distribution network and funds allocated by World Bank for the reconstruction of Baku-Shamakhi highway have helped to ensure currency surplus in the domestic foreign exchange market. Of course, currency market activity as a result of budget transfers of the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), is one of the key factors affecting dollar's stability.

Analytical Group of Report believes, the impact of external factors on the dollar's stability is also great.

Thus, the stability of the domestic currencies of Russia, Turkey and China, the main trade partners of Azerbaijan, and the positive tendency observed in the world economy in recent years have not had a negative impact on the currencies of developing countries.

"The strengthening of the dollar in Azerbaijan next year will be mainly due to the oil prices at $ 50 / bbl and higher. However, it should be noted that, the strengthening of the dollar in the global financial markets since the second half of 2018, in the light of expectations of fall in oil prices, dollar rate may rise in Azerbaijan. The rise in interest rates in the global economy in 2019 and the likelihood of a sharp decline in oil prices could lift US dollar exchange rate again”, the analysts say.