Fitch lowers its forecast for global gas prices and keeps oil prices in 2024

Fitch Ratings has lowered its forecast for the current year for global gas exchange prices and maintained its forecast for oil prices, Report informs.

“Fitch Ratings has cut its 2024 gas price assumptions due to weaker demand and ample supply expectations in the short term. Our base-case oil price assumptions are unchanged,” reads the message.

Now, according to Fitch’s expectations, average exchange prices for gas in Europe this year will be $10 per 1,000 cubic feet (instead of $12 in the previous forecast), estimates for 2025 and 2026 remained unchanged - $10 and $8, respectively. At the same time, the agency presented a forecast for 2027: the cost of 1,000 cubic feet will then average $7.

Price forecasts for gas in the American market have also been lowered: the agency expects the average price at Henry Hub to be $2.5 per 1,000 cubic feet at the end of the current year (previously - $3.25). For the next year, the forecast was maintained and amounted to $3. However, in 2026 the price is now expected to be $3 rather than $2.75. Then, according to agency forecasts, gas prices will fall to $2.75 on average in 2027.

As for oil, the forecast for Brent oil has been maintained for the current year at $80 per barrel, for 2025 at $70, and for 2026 at $65. In 2027, the agency expects a price of $65 per barrel.

The average price of WTI oil, as previously expected, will be $75 per barrel at the end of this year, $65 in 2025, and $60 in 2026. In 2027, the agency expects the price at $60 per barrel.