EIA lowers Brent maximum price forecast by 2050 to $170

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy has updated the forecast for the maximum possible price for Brent crude oil by 2050, slightly reducing it - from $173 to $170 per barrel, Report informs referring to the Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO) prepared by the EIA.

The Brent price forecast was also adjusted in the baseline scenario, from $95 to $90 per barrel, and in the low price scenario, from $48 to $45 per barrel.

The US oil production is now approaching a record high of about 11 million barrels per day. The US authorities expect that by 2030, under the baseline scenario, it will reach about 13 million barrels per day and will remain at this level for the next 20 years.

The EIA also notes an increase in natural gas production. At the moment, it is about 991 billion cubic meters per year, and in the future, its increase will depend on the price and volume of exports.

At the same time, the high scenario for oil and gas supplies from the US provides for an increase in their production by 2050 to 17.8 million barrels per day and 1.5 trillion cubic meters per year, respectively. However, the COVID-19 pandemic will have a great impact on the industry, especially in the short term.

The EIA notes that petroleum and natural gas will remain the most-consumed sources of energy in the US through 2050, but renewable energy is the fastest growing.

“Wind and solar incentives, along with falling technology costs, support robust competition with natural gas for electricity generation, while the shares of coal and nuclear power decrease in the US electricity mix,” reads the report.