Russian expert: Azerbaijan protected from global instability

"The coronavirus pandemic has let out like jinn from a bottle, a crisis that has bottled up there since 2008, "Vasily Koltashov, Head of the Center for Political Economic Research, Institute of the New Society, told the Russian Bureau of Report.

"All anti-crisis policy in the world since 2008 in response to the first wave (2008-2009), the second wave (2013-2016) was aimed at removing the symptoms of the crisis and not allowing it to result in a collapse in the economy. The EU has spent enormous resources and ruined tens of millions of people in the Eurozone to ensure stability for the financial sector of the North. All these happened in 2020. And then the collapse began, which ironically coincided with the coronavirus pandemic that exacerbated the crisis. We have the same crisis as in 2008, only this time it set at liberty and can produce the destruction, the changes that are necessary for the economy to restart, all the surpluses and vices were eliminated. All these factors are the essence of the current crisis," the expert said.

Koltashov noted that "the crisis is not only a disease but also medicine. However, the medicine is very, very bitter: "We can only hope that everything will pass quickly. Unquestionably, we will face at least a six-month depression before the recovery of the world economy."

"Even though Azerbaijan much better protected from global instability, it faces the same question as the rest of the post-Soviet economies of Eurasia. Who to be friends with and on what terms? And even not "on what terms", but how to achieve such stable trade relations with the nearest significant economies - Russia and Iran-in order to win. And in this situation, it would be pointless to focus on the policy of the European Union or the United States," the Russian expert believes.

In his opinion, Azerbaijan has another very important advantage in relation to some neighboring countries, for example, Georgia or Armenia: "This is the freedom of decision-making, which allows the country to act against crises and to establish relations that will ensure the participation of the Azerbaijani economy in the relaunch of the Eurasian economies. Neither Georgia nor Armenia can act boldly enough in such a situation, they follow the lead of Washington, and this is exactly the opportunity for Azerbaijan to be more important and significant in the region and to be more valuable for Russia in relations, because Azerbaijan is a country that is not governed from outside."

The expert believes that this year will be a year of "economic collapse and depression": "This year, the world will experience a state of very, very low business and trade activity. I think that most countries will close the tourist destinations."

"As for countries like Azerbaijan, we also need to do everything for it just to survive the depression, and then develop the concept of restarting the economy with neighboring countries. It is necessary to understand that in the next month and a half, the collapse will come to an end, giving place to severe stagnation.This stagnation is the time when we need to prepare the restart of the economy."