Chabert: Yerevan’s demand for guarantors of peace treaty - attempt to put pressure on Baku

The tentative of Armenia to include the EU and the US as guarantors for the peace treaty could be interpreted as an attempt to exploit foreign assistance to exert pressure on Azerbaijan, Italian analyst, Doctor of Philosophy in the field of international law at the Sapienza University of Rome, Valentina Chabert, told Report.

“The stance adopted by Armenia over the last few years during the negotiations for a peace treaty with Azerbaijan has gone through different phases. The unconstructive behavior and the continuing attempt to delay the process seems to have given way – from September 19, 2023 – to a more constructive and collaborative approach with Azerbaijan,” she noted.

“Nonetheless, it is remarkable that Armenia has repeatedly pushed for the engagement of foreign mediators (especially the EU) in the normalization process. In my opinion, the reasons for this stance are essentially two. On the one hand, it comes with no surprise that the signature of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan will have an extremely high internal political cost for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has been criticized multiple times and had to face several protests in Yerevan during the last years. Indeed, even though part of the Armenian society recognizes the need for peace and regional stability, another part of the same society accused Pashinyan to have “abandoned” Karabakh and to be ready to accept a peace treaty with unfavorable conditions for Armenia.”

“On the other hand, the tentative of Armenia to include the EU and the US as guarantors for the peace treaty could be interpreted as an attempt to exploit foreign assistance to exert pressure on Azerbaijan. This is also due to multiple explicit noticeable episodes of inclination towards a more pro-Armenian stance from the West, which after the Granada Statement is not perceived as an unbiased mediator by Azerbaijan anymore.

This, however, represents a sensitive issue for the West itself too, since the possible deterioration of its relations with Azerbaijan would undermine the necessity of strengthening economic ties with Central Asia by avoiding Russia and Iran and the possibility of recurring to an alternative energy source.”