Deutsche Bank: Probability of Italy withdrawal from EU increases

Baku. 15 November. REPORT.AZ/ Italian 10-year government bond yield exceeded limit of 2.1% and reached the highest level since July 2015.

Report informs citing Vestifinance, this is due to December 4 referendum on amendments to the Italian Constitution. Financial markets have already began to call the referendum "Italeave". Deutsche Bank states 60% probability that the Senate reform will be rejected. Notably, if the people vote against the amendments, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi will resign. Pressures, aslo, increase number of eurosceptics.

Notably, the constitutional reforms are related with changing the role and function of the Senate. The reforms envisage reduce significantly number of senators. Italian opposition and regional leaders are against the amendments. They believe that Rome wants to put an end to their governance.

The analytical group of Report News Agency forecasts weak euro in the global currency market until December 4. If Italy opposes to the reforms required by the European Union (EU), similar problems in other EU countries not excluded. So, USD/EUR exchange rate is expected to reach 1.0450. Also, a decision on December 13-14 regarding discount rate in US will led to weakening of euro and strengthening of dollar.