Baku. 21 June. REPORT.AZ/ The dollar exchange rate in Russia increased by 6% over the last week, breaking the critical mark at 60 RUB/ USD, which increased the pressure on Azerbaijani manat.
Analytical Group of Report believes that the fall in the value of the Russian ruble will cause the real effective rate of manat to grow and to increase imports into the country. Notably, real effective exchange rate of the manat as of May 1 was 95.6 points. Analysts consider this course to be acceptable within 85-90 points.
In addition, analysis of the Report allows us to conclude that there is no sharp change in US-dollar exchange rate in Russia and it will remain in range of 57-63 RUB/USD by the year end. This will not have a serious impact on manat rate. Russian government has recently expressed concern over the excessive appreciation of the ruble, which became a kind of signal about the forthcoming rise in the price of dollar in summer season.
Analytical Group of Report predicts first the decline in oil prices to 42-44 dollars per barrel, and then their growth to 50 dollars/barrel. This gives grounds to assume that the dollar exchange rate will remain stable both in Russia and in Azerbaijan. In addition, the dollar's exchange rate in world foreign exchange market is expected to begin to decline again after a slight strengthening of its positions. Starting from the second half of 2018, dollar's growth rate and decline in oil prices are predicted, which will have a negative impact on all world currencies.