Pashinyan 'seizes' parliament - Kocharyan and Sargsyan wait in ambush - COMMENT

Pashinyan 'seizes' parliament - Kocharyan and Sargsyan wait in ambush - COMMENT The revolution in Armenia is not complete; it bids farewell to the old regime.
Analytics
December 10, 2018 17:06

Baku. 10 December. REPORT.AZ/ Early parliamentary elections took place in Armenia, marking the achievement of one of the goals of the movement launched in April-May of this year. It can be called the victory of the "My Step" block, or the "Way out" faction. According to the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Armenia, all ballot papers were counted.

The final official results show that the centrist My Step Alliance, which includes Mr Pashinyan's Civil Treaty Party, won 70.4% of the vote. Its closest rival, the moderate Prosperous Armenia party, led by tycoon and arm-wrestling champion Gagik Tsarukyan who supported Pashinyan in overthrowing the government led by Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan, won just over 8%.

Bright Armenia, a liberal pro-Western party, won about 6% of the vote. Each party needed at least 5% of the vote to enter the 101-seat National Assembly.

The votes have been distributed in the following way:

Republican party – 59,068 (4.70%), Citizen’s Decision social-democratic party – 8,533 (0.68%), ARF-D – 48,822 (3.89%), My Step – 884,849 (70.44%), Bright Armenia – 80,049 (6.37%), Christian People’s Revival party – 6,460 (0.51%), National Progress party – 4,122 (0.33%), We bloc – 25,174 (2.00%), Rule of Law party – 12,390 (0.99), Sasna Tsrer party – 22,868 (1.82%), Prosperous Armenia party – 103,837 (8.27%).

Results of the elections show pro-Russian parties, even the former ruling party barely scored 10 percent as in the previous year. By the way, Serzh Sargsyan’s party won 49.21 percent of the vote in the parliamentary elections on April 2, 2017. In this political campaign only "revolutionaries" have won. In other words, they "seized" the parliament.

Meanwhile, the exit from the exit poll last year was settled by Edmon Marukyan, chairman of the "Light Armenia" party headed “Yelk” (“Exit”), Nikol Pashinyan, the leader of the Civil-Treaty Party, and Armen Sargsyan, the head of the Republican Party. In this sense, it is unlikely that Edmon Marukyan would put pressure on the leader of the "My Step" bloc. However, the Tsarukyan bloc represented in the parliament - the Prosperous Armenia Party may become a headache for Nikol Pashinyan in the future.

Businessman, billionaire Gagik Tsarukyan had a very close relationship with former presidents Kocharyan and Sargsyan. Some reports say that he has business relations with Russia. Therefore, the Tsarukian can be regarded as a "bomb" in the parliament.

In fact, the previous three presidents of Armenia, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan appear to be out of game. It can be assumed that Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s people could form a staff base of Nikol Pashinyan, since they represent a similar political view.

Kocharyan and Sargsyan seem to be waiting for a moment in the ambush, to take revenge. However, this will depend on the attitude of the future government of Armenia, and most importantly, on Russia. What may happen? While Nikol Pashinyan turns his back on Kremlin, the supporters Kocharyan and Sargsyan, as well as Communists and those represented in the same group with them may create turmoil in the country. From this point of view, the use of these two figures, which played a key role in the participation of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in Azerbaijan, cannot be regarded as complete. Sasna Tsrer Party, which speaks against Russia could not pass a barrier in the election. Perhaps, this is the gift of the new government to Russia. In other words, Nikol Pashinyan demonstrated his readiness to work with the Kremlin.

Hence, will those who are known to be pro-Moscow be represented in the government after the extraordinary parliamentary elections that took place as a result of the movement launched by Ter-Petrosyan in 2008, which continued by Pashinyan in 2018? Or will Russia quit Armenia? At the last CIS informal summit in St. Petersburg, Moscow confirmed attitude to Pashinyan and his government with various actions. This can also be an indicator of dissatisfaction with them. Even the CIS representatives have not positively assessed the elections in Armenia. Mirlan Bakirov, a representative of the CIS Interparliamentary Assembly observation mission, said the voter turnout at the polling stations was low. By the way, the head of the Central Election Commission of Armenia (CEC) Tigran Mukuchyan said that 48.63% of voters participated in the elections (1 million 260 thousand out of 2 million 570 thousand voters participated in the voting). In 2017, this figure was 60.86 percent.

An ordinary citizen of Armenia described his voter activity as follows: "Half of the voters are not in the country. They lay asphalt in Russia and cook kebabs.” It turns out that bulletins were used on behalf of those who did not participate in the voting. In any case, this argument is not denied.

Notably, according to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, as of January 1, 2017, the country's permanent population is 2 million 986.5 thousand people. There are doubts about the number of voters in this year's political campaign. If we deduce the current number of voters last year, the difference will be about 416.5 thousand. It turns out that this is the number of citizens under the age of 18 who do not have the right to vote in Armenia. This figure seems suspicious. Some voters are in closed institutions. According to the previously published information, the Armenian army servicemen and prisoners voted for Nikol Pashinyan. Even soldiers who voted for the Pashinyan bloc were allowed to meet with their parents and they were awarded. Supporters of Pashinyan spent $ 560,000, while the former ruling party spent $ 260,000 on the political campaign.

Hence, the information and the delayed statements by international organizations, the belated congratulations of the heads of the influential states of the world, make it clear that the elections in Armenia are not free, transparent and fair. In such cases, Western states usually congratulate "democratic revolutionaries" first, and the observers also make a statement about the results of the elections.

But none of these have ever happened. Russian officials did not rush to congratulate Pashinyan. Thus, one stage of the "revolution" is also left behind. Now, revolutionists will have to deal with the formation of the government, the constitutional reform, and clarify the relations with president Armen Sarkissian.

Development of the country, political and economic stability, participation in regional projects, the life of the government to be established, etc. will be possible after the liberation of Azerbaijani lands from occupation. It should be taken into account that in April 2016, the war against the Armenian servicemen in the occupied Azerbaijani territories demonstrated the weakness of Sargsyan’s government. His regime was over two years after that. Thus, the revolution in Armenia has not been completed, it bids farewell to the former regime. From this point of view, Nikol Pashinyan and his political forces are still busy with destruction. Their potential will be seen in building the state.

Finally, the elections in Armenia ended with the victory of Pashinyan, and imprisoned Kocharyan and Sargsyan were sent to the ambush. Will there be a revenge?be a rematch?

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