Agiotage around Saakashvili: preparation for next stage - COMMENT

Baku. 6 December. REPORT.AZ/ Ukraine is considered an ally country for Azerbaijan. There are similarities between them in terms of violation of territorial integrity of two countries and facing separatist situations. Therefore, the developments in Ukraine are being closely followed in Azerbaijan. The employees of Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) have conducted search at the house of Mikheil Saakashvili, former Georgian president and ex-governor of Ukraine's Odessa Oblast. During the search as a protest he climbed on the roof of his apartment and threatened to jump down. Law enforcement employees pulled him from the roof and took him downstairs. M. Saakashvili is accused of supporting the participants of crime organizations and covering their criminal activity. His attorney Pavel Bogomazov said that former president is accused of coup attempt in Ukraine. In general, the issue of Saakashvili in Ukraine became topical since November 2016. In November 2016 president Petro Poroshenko dismissed him from the posts of governor of Odessa and president’s advisor. On June 26, 2017, when Mikheil Saakashvili was abroad, Petro Poroshenko has stripped him from Ukrainian citizenship. Presidential Administration explained this move with that Saakashvili provided false information while applying for citizenship. Nevertheless, the government did not hamper his return to Ukraine.

US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker also commented on this issue: “Ukraine is a country with the rule of law. Someone like former President Saakashvili has the right to pursue his own case within Ukrainian courts. I hope that people de-escalate the political drama, focus on the legal matter, and that Ukraine really strengthens its institutions of democracy, as well as fighting corruption and economic reform.”

Ukraine Migration Service has extended his stay in Ukraine until March 1, 2018. However, on November 23 Ukrainian governmental bodies said they will expel former governor of Odessa within a week. Some time ago the Supreme Administrative Court of Ukraine did not satisfy the claim of Mikheil Saakashvili to dismiss Petro Poroshenko. On December 3, Movement of New Forces headed by Mikheil Saakashvili organized the protest under the slogan “March for Impeachment” in Kyiv. Protests said the situation in Ukraine can be improved by impeachment of Petro Poroshenko. Protestors were accompanied by law enforcement employees.

In general, the confrontation between M.Saakashvilli and Petro Poroshenko was obvious in the meeting held on December 16, 2015. In that meeting the governor of Odessa Saakashvilli accused minister of interior affairs Arsen Avakov of corruption after heated exchange Avakov threw his glass of water over Saakashvili. This showed that the situation within Ukrainian government quite tense. The next steps of M.Saakashvilli and statements against the government changed the situation. It ended up with discovery of forgery in migration documents of ex-governor.

In any case, what happens in Ukraine does not only consist of confrontation between Saakashvilli and Ukrainian government. Former governor is more known as a pro –Western politician.

Does it mean that the West leaved Saakashvilli to his fate?!

Departure of Saakashvilli from Ukrainian policy arena may be comparted to the annexation of Crimea by Russia.

The first steps of Pro-Western democrats taken for integration of Ukraine with European Union ended up with annexation of Crimea. At that time Western states did not show serious resistance against Russia. But now the pressure on Mikheil Saakashvilli who is thought to be the promoter of Western Democratic values is faced with a silence. But in our opinion this is not the end. It can be suggested that arrest or opposite accusations may lead to the political rehabilitation of Saakashvili on Ukrainian political stage. Because the next parliamentary elections in Ukraine will be held in 2018 and presidential elections in 2019. Such political campaigns cause different assumptions to this issue. For this reason, it can be suggested that if the former governor is arrested or political pressure on him grows, new opposition bloc can me established around him. It may lead to the decrease and weakening of pro-Russian opposition in the country.

What is happening around former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvilli may give impetus to new developments.