US weighs returning smaller permanent fighter force to Okinawa

The US military plans to resume the permanent deployment of fighter jets at an American base in Okinawa but with fewer planes than before, Nikkei Asia has learned, drawing mixed reactions from lawmakers and experts as the threat posed by China grows, Report informs.

The US Air Force began in 2022 a phased withdrawal of around 48 aging F-15 Eagle fighters permanently assigned to Kadena Air Base on the main Okinawa island in Japan. To fill the gap until a long-term plan for future posture is devised, the Air Force has been sending F-35, F-22 and other fighters as part of a rotational force.

"I would not expect us to go with rotational forces in perpetuity," Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander of the US Pacific Air Forces, said in a virtual interview with Nikkei Asia on Wednesday, confirming that the service is expected to resume the permanent deployment of fighter planes. Wilsbach did not mention a time frame.

Congressional sources, who were briefed on the Air Force's plan, told Nikkei Asia that the service intends to deploy 36 F-15EX aircraft, a one-quarter cut from the fleet before the phased withdrawal began.

Wilsback disputed the argument that the tactical value of Kadena has decreased as American bases in Okinawa are seen as a possible target of China in a crisis because of its proximity, stressing that Kadena "is becoming even more important" for a quick response.

"If they're shooting weapons at us at Kadena, then we could be projecting power from Kadena Air Base," he said.

"Our agile combat employment philosophy and strategy disperses aircraft away from Kadena," the general continued, meaning that fighters could continue to execute air operations and avoid missile strikes in a crisis by relocating quickly from Okinawa to other locations in the western Pacific.

The Air Force has worked to expand access to outposts in the Philippines, Papua New Guinea and Australia. The strategy is intended to distribute aircraft from bases in Okinawa and other locations near China to evade Beijing's precision strikes, a major shift from post-Cold War strategy.

Jeffrey Hornung, a senior political scientist at Rand Corp., welcomed the planned permanent deployment at Kadena.

"Having a permanently deployed number of planes in theater provides planners with a better understanding of what types of capabilities we have at our immediate disposal [in peacetime], which is always going to be a plus compared to rotational deployments," Hornung said.

Rotational deployments could create a vacuum of fighter planes between rotations and do not guarantee a permanent presence, risking the perception of the US weakening its commitment to the Indo-Pacific region, experts warn.

Rep. Rob Wittman, a Republican from the state of Virginia and vice chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, told Nikkei Asia that he supported the permanent deployment of aircraft in Kadena but was concerned about the downsizing.

"I support a permanent basing of F-15EX aircraft at Kadena but am concerned about the Air Force's initial plan to station only 36 new aircraft, replacing the 48 divested ones," the lawmaker said. "I look forward to an operational analysis from the Air Force to support this reduction in forward-based presence."

The Air Force did not respond to a request for comment on details of the plan in Kadena.

Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, echoed Wittman's position.

"The F-15EX is a substantial upgrade over the F-15C version that was there before, so I think it is positive that the permanent deployment is being re-established. Nonetheless, a decrease in numbers will raise some eyebrows," Cooper argued.

The F-15EX can shoot missiles from a greater distance and has advanced electronic warfare capabilities.

The decreasing number of manned fighters could be offset by uncrewed platforms.

Wilsbach suggested that the US will consider sending next-generation drones known as combat corroborative aircraft to Okinawa. The uncrewed aircraft will take commands from a fighter pilot in the manned platform and operate semiautonomously.

Asked whether deployment of such drones to Kadena is on the table, the general responded, "absolutely." He also noted that the drones do not have to be stationed at the same place with manned aircraft, noting that they can fly in from elsewhere.

Wilsbach said combat collaborative aircraft can do many things "to complicate the battle space and create chaos for your adversary." They could execute multiple missions including strikes, intelligence gathering, jamming and decoys, he said.

But Wittman stressed it will take time for combat collaborative aircraft to be operational in mass, indicating they would not be relevant to a contingency in the Taiwan Strait in the late 2020s.

"The issue is that [combat collaborative aircraft] are not expected to be fielded in adequate quantities until the end of the decade," Wittman said. "This delay may pose a risk, considering the escalating threat, capabilities and anticipated aggressive actions by our adversaries in the Pacific theater against our partners and allies."