Ukrainian expert: Russian army has no strength for serious offensive operations

The regional grouping of Russia and Belarus cannot pose a real danger to Ukraine, Ukrainian political scientist Yuri Reichel told Report.

“If we talk about the short term, an offensive from Belarus is unlikely, because the forces that Russia has there are completely insufficient. The combat capability of the Belarusian army is very low, in addition, we are seeing big contradictions and even ethnic clashes between Belarusian and Russian servicemen. Because of this, the so-called unified group today cannot pose a real danger to Ukraine and its northern regions,” Reichel said.

At the same time, the expert didn’t rule out the emergence of such a threat in the longer term. “This can happen as Russian troops are transferred to Belarus. But here we must take into account the topographical factor: the Ukrainian-Belarusian border passes through the Pripyat swamps, which are absolutely impassable for heavy equipment,” he said.

“The Russian army does not have the strength for serious offensive operations now, since the Russian army has suffered huge losses - about 93,000 people. This includes those killed, missing, as well as those who died in hospitals and even those who can no longer go to fight due to injuries. That is, the regular Russian army died,” the expert believes.

He noted that now it must be replaced by ‘partial mobilization.’ He notes that another attempt at a frontal offensive by the Russian army can be expected in the spring.

“It cannot be said that Russia has lost its full combat capability, Russia has sufficient human potential. The Russian Federation is clearly afraid of the fact of defeat on the battlefield in local operations. To solve not military, but political problems, a system of remote shelling is used to terrorize the Ukrainian rear in order to force Kyiv to negotiate. True, the effect of this shelling is completely different from what Moscow expected,” Reichel said, adding that Ukrainian air defense was significantly strengthened due to Western supplies.