New Eastern Europe: Nagorno-Karabakh conflict reaches dangerous stage

Poland's influential English language magazine 'New Eastern Europe' has published an article headlined 'Nagorno-Karabakh conflict reaches dangerous stage'.

Report informs that authored by Dr. Vasif Huseynov, a research fellow affiliated with the Baku-based Center for Analysis of International Relations, the article says that the negotiations between the parties to Nagorno Karabakh conflict failed and that if there is no constructive interference of the international community, the military tensions will escalate in the region.

The author notes that the optimism caused by the government change in Armenia in spring of 2018 did not justify itself. Thus, in the first period of his coming to power Nikol Pashinyan showed inclination to negotiations and gave positive messages: "A certain degree of optimism was also caused by the short meeting between the leaders of the countries, President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, on the sidelines of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Tajikistan’s capital, a year ago on September 28th. In the course of the meeting, which was the first between the two, they vowed to de-escalate tensions and create a direct hotline between the two sides.

"The subsequent summit of the two leaders, in Vienna on March 29th of this year, looked also positive as both sides described it “constructive”. In the months afterwards, the foreign ministers of both countries met on several occasions to facilitate this process and, towards this end, they also vowed to prepare their public for peace. These developments were really perceived by many observers as a sign of commitment from the new Armenian government to reach an agreement with Azerbaijan."

Huseynov noted that this promising situation in the region, nonetheless, failed to produce tangible results and dramatically eroded in recent months: "The bellicose statements of the Armenian leaders and abrupt changes in the official rhetoric of Pashinyan’s government nipped all hope for a breakthrough in the bud.

On September 28th, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, addressing the general debate of the 74th session of the UN General Assembly, pointed out that the settlement of the Armenia–Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict marked no progress over the last twelve months, since the last year’s General Debate. He further added that “the negotiations cannot last forever” if the sides continuously fail to reach a breakthrough.

The article notes that last time when Azerbaijani officials expressed such pessimistic statements about the prospects of the negotiations, tensions in the region escalated abruptly and the two sides eventually found themselves in a war in April 2016 in the bloodiest confrontation since 1994.

"The international community, in particular the European Union and United Nations, should, therefore, act proactively, push the sides into substantive negotiations and thus prevent the emergence of another bloody conflict in the already war-torn region."