Political scientist: ‘Beginning of delimitation process is path to peace between Baku and Yerevan’

The return of sections between four villages in the Northeastern Tavush Province of Armenia and four deserted villages that were formerly a part of the Northwestern Gazakh district of Azerbaijan and the beginning of the border delimitation process paves the way for the further progress of the peace process between Baku and Yerevan, political scientist Ariel Kogan said in an article published by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, Report informs.

The author emphasized that the negotiations were direct, without mediators, who failed for over 3 decades to get any results. The OSCE Minsk Group for example, which was headed by a co-chairmanship consisting of France, Russia and the United States, came out empty handed due to the geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West. Both sides blamed each other for the failure, when in reality Russia and France were fighting to gain control of Armenia. The French saw Armenia as an asset in its regional confrontation with Türkiye, while considering Azerbaijan as their opponent’s “offshoot”.

Technically, by agreeing to return to the demarcation of the borders according to the Alma-Ata Declarations, the Armenian side validates the Azerbaijani thesis of the “just war”.

Kogan also touched on the issue of the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh and emphasized that the Azerbaijani victory and return of the Karabakh led to the withdrawal of Russian “peacekeepers”, ending Moscow’s years-long military presence there. The “peacekeepers” were supposed to be stationed there till 2025. The demarcation agreement will lead to the departure of the Russian border guards from the Armenian side – they were stationed there by request of Yerevan because it was afraid of military escalation.

“The US and the EU almost immediately officially and demonstratively applauded the demarcation agreement. Russia and France were silent. For Paris it is a loss, as its conflict with Baku is growing. Peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Southern Caucasus harms French standing in the region. Paris would benefit greatly from an escalation, due to supplying Yerevan with its new weaponry. The agreement on demarcation can become a stepping stone towards the Peace Treaty, which will strengthen the Azerbaijani (read Turkish in French understanding) position,” stated in the article.

There are other players in the region (for example, Iran and India), and other issues, like the project of the Zangezur transport corridor, but currently, it seems that the way towards peaceful resolution is being paved. It all depends now on how the present Armenian leadership will withstand foreign pressure from former and current allies.