ING releases forecast for Azerbaijan's current account surplus through 2029

The current account surplus of Azerbaijan's balance of payments is forecast at $9 billion in 2026, which is equivalent to 11% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), Report informs, citing the Netherlands' largest banking group, ING Group.

In 2027, this figure is expected to stand at $4.9 billion (5.6% of GDP), and in 2028, at $4.3 billion (4.5% of GDP).

"The rise in oil quotes has significantly strengthened the prospects of the external sector, offsetting the bulk of the negative trends observed in 2025. Considering that an increase in the cost of oil by every $10 per barrel leads to an increase in annual exports by approximately 4% of GDP, the current account surplus in the forecast year of 2026 could exceed 10% of GDP. At the same time, the country's sovereign assets, reaching 115% of GDP, demonstrate stable growth and form a reliable shield against possible external shocks. These reserve buffers continue to act as a key pillar for the manat peg and the maintenance of overall macroeconomic stability.

However, in the long-term horizon, the decline in hydrocarbon production volumes and the threats of insufficient diversification of the export basket will likely gradually narrow the foreign trade surplus. Azerbaijan maintains its position as one of the most resilient states in the region in terms of foreign economic parameters, although dependence on the commodity sector continues to shape its medium-term development trajectory," the ING noted.