ING Group evaluates outlook for Azerbaijan's sovereign debt for 2026–2028

Azerbaijan's state debt is forecast to reach 20.9% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, Report informs, citing the Netherlands' largest banking group, ING Group.

According to ING's calculations, the level of state debt will rise to 22% of GDP in 2027, and this figure will increase to 23.1% of GDP in 2028.

In absolute terms, Azerbaijan's gross external debt is projected at $15.2 billion (18.7% of GDP) in 2026, $16.2 billion (18.3% of GDP) in 2027, and is expected to increase to $17.2 billion (18% of GDP) by 2028. The ratio of gross external debt to total exports, according to analysts' estimates, will amount to 52.2% in 2026, 64% in 2027, and 65.9% in 2028.

"At the same time, the financial position of the country will remain stable due to a surplus budget," the banking group's report notes.

The surplus of Azerbaijan's consolidated budget is forecast to be 3.4% of GDP in 2026, and 1.7% of GDP in both 2027 and 2028, respectively. The primary surplus of the consolidated budget is expected at 4.3% of GDP in 2026, 2.6% of GDP in 2027, and 2.7% of GDP in 2028.