Inflation is expected to remain elevated in the near term, averaging 3.9 percent in advanced economies and 5.9 percent in emerging market and developing economies in 2022, before subsiding in 2023,
“Assuming medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored and the pandemic eases its grip, higher inflation should fade as supply chain disruptions ease, monetary policy tightens, and demand rebalances away from goods-intensive consumption towards services. The rapid increase in fuel prices is also expected to moderate during 2022–23, which will help contain headline inflation,” reads the IMF report.
According to IMF forecast, futures markets indicate oil prices will rise about 12 percent and natural gas prices about 58 percent in 2022 (both considerably lower than the increases seen in 2021) before retreating in 2023 as supply-demand imbalances recede further.
“Similarly, food prices are expected to increase at a more moderate pace of about 4½ percent in 2022 and decline in 2023. In many countries, nominal wage growth remains contained despite employment and participation returning almost to pre-pandemic levels. But in the United States, the story is different: a sharp decline in unemployment has been accompanied by buoyant nominal wage growth. This suggests a degree of tightening in US labor markets not evident elsewhere. If US labor force participation remains below pre-pandemic levels and discouraged workers remain on the sidelines, tighter labor markets may feed through to higher prices. As a result, the Federal Reserve communicated in December 2021 that it will taper asset purchases at a faster pace and signaled that the federal funds rate will likely be raised to 0.75–1.00 percent by the end of 2022, some 50 basis points higher than in the previous guidance,” reads the outlook.
According to the IMF, less accommodative monetary policy in the United States is expected to prompt tighter global financial conditions, putting pressure on emerging market and developing economy currencies.
“Higher interest rates will also make borrowing more expensive worldwide, straining public finances. For countries with high foreign currency debt, the combination of tighter financial conditions, exchange rate depreciations, and higher imported inflation will lead to challenging monetary and fiscal policy trade-offs. Although fiscal consolidation is anticipated in many emerging market and developing economies in 2022, high post-pandemic debt burdens will be an ongoing challenge for years to come,” the IMF says.