Baku. 15 March. REPORT.AZ/ Global financial markets are expected to end 2016 year with a positive trend.
The earlier pessimistic mood in the financial markets will gradually stabilize, while in the second half it is expected to increase.Increase in the price of the assets and turnover in the financial markets happened due to the increasing liquidity as result of central banks' monetary expansion. Thus, at present, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan of (BOJ) applied monetary expansion and negative rate.
It should be noted that the most important decision in financial markets this year is expected from Federal Reserve FED. discount rate is likely to increase Last month, possibility of increasing discount rate by Federal Reserve was 30% in 2016, while now it is 78%.
At the next meeting will be held on march 15-16, the FED is not expected to raise the discount rate.
It is shown by futures transactions on dollar bonds. In the poll, conducted among economists, 50% believe that in June FED will increase discount rate. Therefore, the value of the dollar will decline until June up to 1,20-1,22 USD/EUR.
Reduction in number of active oil wells, oil production in the United States, weakening of the dollar give ground to believe in forecasts on increasing oil prices. This year the oil price expected to rise to the level of 40-50 USD per barrel.
However, by the end of the year, decline in gold prices is inevitable.
Along with raised interest rates by FED, gold prices expected to fall and make 1 000-1 100 USD per ounce.
Stock exchanges will complete 2016 at current level and sharp changes not expected in financial markets.