Fitch predicts sharp growth in state budget surplus of Azerbaijan

The general government surplus is projected to increase to 10.6% of GDP in 2022, from 4.2% in 2021, driven by energy prices but also reflecting strong non-oil receipts and moderate expenditure (up 9.3% yoy in 8M22). Report informs, citing Fitch Ratings.

"We have revised up our 2023 surplus by 1.5pp since the last review to 6.7% of GDP, due to our new oil price forecast and expectations of still-high gas prices, while continuing to incorporate capex on territories reclaimed in the conflict with Armenia of 2% of GDP, and higher inflation-related social spending. The fiscal surplus is projected to narrow to 2.3% of GDP in 2024," the agency said.