Baku. 14 August. REPORT.AZ/ Recession of Russian economy will last until 2017. According to the experts of Department of Economic Research Moody's Analytics rating agency of Moody's, Russia experiencing recession from the first quarter and this situation may last for about two years.
In the second quarter, Russia's GDP fell more than forecasted (4.4%) by 4.6%. At the same time in the previous three months, the decline was 2.2%. Analysts at Capital Economics Ltd believe that the fall in the third quarter will accelerate to 6.3%, while the experts of the financial group HSBC Holdings Plc predict that the greatest decline in GDP is to be expected in the last quarter of this year.
Report informs, economist at investment fund IHS Global Insight in Washington Charles Movit predicts that the country can move on to economic growth only in 2017. Thus, the decline in oil prices increases the pressure on the ruble and accelerates inflation.As a result, consumers find themselves in a quandary.In current oil prices, the Russian economy will have recession at least two years.
The inflation rate in July was 15.6% compared to last year.The central bank forecasts inflation of 10.8% by the end of the year.
Leading economist at HSBC in Russia Alexander Morozov said that the sharp drop in oil prices threaten financial stability.
According to Vladimir Miklashevsky, strategist Danske Bank A / S Helsinki, currency adjustments to help the Russian economy to absorb shocks coming from abroad:"If central bank allows weakening of the ruble against the backdrop of lower oil prices, it would better protect the economy from the oil shock.In the long term, current oil prices will benefit the Russian economy, as the long-awaited diversification can finally begin."